Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s easing cycle entering new waters Russia’s central bank has lowered its policy rate to a post-Soviet low during the current crisis and, with the economy likely to recover slowly and inflation set to remain subdued, further monetary... 16th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey and the rising risk of (another) currency crisis The huge hit to Turkey’s balance of payments position from the coronavirus crisis and the evaporation of investors’ confidence in policymakers makes the risk of a currency crisis like that seen in... 11th May 2020 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin’s political shake-up: the economic consequences This Focus looks at the economic implications of the recent political shake-up in Russia. We begin with an overview of the political developments, then explain what they mean for economic policymaking... 29th January 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s recovery rests on shaky foundations Policy loosening will drive a stronger recovery in Turkey’s economy than most expect this year, but this is likely to come at the cost of higher inflation, a widening current account deficit and falls... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Too soon to write off Russia’s recovery Russia’s economy lost steam in the second half of 2017, but we expect the recovery to get back underway this year as the drag from lower oil production fades and demand strengthens. We continue to... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
