Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s banks: why the next crisis will be worse Turkey’s banks came through last year’s currency crisis without suffering the severe problems that many had feared. But credit growth will probably stay weak, holding back the economic recovery... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s elections: what’s at stake? This weekend’s elections in Turkey, which will mark a shift to a presidential political system, have put markets on edge amid fears of a further tilt towards unorthodox policy under a (strengthened)... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Too soon to write off Russia’s recovery Russia’s economy lost steam in the second half of 2017, but we expect the recovery to get back underway this year as the drag from lower oil production fades and demand strengthens. We continue to... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we trust Turkey’s GDP data? The argument made recently that Turkey’s GDP data are being manipulated by the authorities and that the recent rapid growth rates aren’t plausible doesn’t seem to square with other available evidence... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A primer on Russia’s new fiscal rule In this Focus, we answer five key questions on Russia’s recently-approved fiscal rule, and explain what it means for the government’s deficit, debt and oil funds. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets? We suspect that economic growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking in this cycle. Growth in Russia is likely to accelerate further over the course of 2017-18, but this will be more than offset by... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Mind the gap: CEE economies running out of slack One important consequence of the recent period of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe is that economies are now running at close to full employment. We expect growth to remain robust over the... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
