The latest survey indicators seem to have confirmed that the euro-zone’s feeble recovery has already passed its peak. September’s fall in the composite PMI, for example, left it consistent with a modest quarterly expansion in euro-zone GDP of around 0.2% in Q3 to follow Q2’s stagnation. But perhaps the most worrying message from the September surveys was that the recovery in what was the region’s strongest economy is slowing very sharply. September’s fall in the German Ifo Business Climate Indicator left it consistent with only modestly positive annual German GDP growth.
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