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OPEC impasse: what next?

The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC+ output in the coming months and what they would mean for oil prices.
Samuel Burman Assistant Commodities Economist
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Energy Update

OPEC+ to change tack from September

Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a more liberal approach and allow the few members with spare capacity to produce more. This is one reason why we forecast that the Brent oil price will ease back to around $100 per barrel by year end. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Middle East and North Africa service.

23 June 2022

Energy Update

Europe’s gas supply looking increasingly fragile

Russia’s decision to once again cut supplies to Europe makes the region’s gas supply look increasingly precarious. The move will slow regional stock builds and keep prices historically high.

16 June 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, following another unusually large release from the strategic reserve. Meanwhile, implied product demand fell back as petroleum product prices remain very high. We’re expecting demand to remain seasonally soft in the coming months.

15 June 2022

More from Samuel Burman

Energy Update

Rising production to take the sizzle out of Henry Hub

Strong industrial demand and constrained domestic supply will support US natural gas prices throughout the remainder of this year. However, we expect that the average price will fall in 2022 in large part because of higher production.

28 June 2021

Commodities Update

Timberrrrrrrr...

Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive.

23 June 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (May)

Average daily global aluminium production edged up in May as smelters continued to take advantage of high prevailing prices. We think that production will rise further in the near future.

21 June 2021
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