Commodities Update China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025 Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ remains in can-kicking mode While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily... 5th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Is the gold rally over? Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand... 2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update US import tariffs: your questions answered We held an online session on US import tariffs on 26th November. (See a recording here ). In this Update we answer the questions we were most asked. 29th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update How to think about US tariffs on oil imports We are sceptical that US tariffs on oil imports will ever see the light of day. But if they did, they would probably result in lower oil production in Canada and Mexico, increased US gasoline prices... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire The economic impact of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on whether the deal holds and whether it sets the stage for a broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. If it does, that would allow... 27th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update European gas at the mercy of LNG European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update One US deficit that won’t worry Trump President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? 1732719600 An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.
Commodities Update Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The curious case of negative Texan natural gas prices Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic. 6th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US election not going to roil commodity markets The outcome of the US election won’t have a sizeable impact on most commodity prices over the next few months. Instead, differences between the candidates’ views on vehicle emissions, LNG exports and... 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
