Over-invoicing by exporters over the last five months has significantly inflated the apparent strength of overseas demand. While official customs data show a surge in exports, this is not evident in the imports reported by trading partners. China’s statistics bureau itself produces a little-watched estimate of industrial sales for export that matches the trading partner data much more closely. (See Chart below.) Based on these figures, we believe that actual exports expanded at only half the 17% y/y rate reported by customs in the first four months of 2013.
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