Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from Maithripala Sirisena, a defector from his own party. An incumbent win still appears to be the most likely outcome, in which case, policy is likely to continue pretty much as before. But an opposition win would be loaded with uncertainty. For one thing, it could unsettle the security environment, despite assurances from the president that power would be handed over peacefully. The opposition also wants to draw away from China, which has been an important source of investment in recent years.
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