Asia Economics Weekly Korea dodges recession (just), Sri Lanka in deflation The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of further cuts in the near term when it lowered interest rates earlier this month. But the weakness of the Q3 GDP figures underlines that... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan latest IMF deal, CBSL on hold The loan deal that was confirmed this week between the IMF and Pakistan envisages a further sharp tightening of fiscal policy. This drag from fiscal policy is the main reason why we think GDP growth... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Sri Lanka election risks, new Indonesia rate forecast Sri Lanka has enjoyed a steady, if unspectacular recovery from the 2022 debt default crisis. However, this progress could be put at risk depending on the results of this weekend’s presidential... 20th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asian central banks waiting for the Fed With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of... 27th March 2024 · 27 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: easing cycle has further to go The Central Bank of Sri Lanka today cut interest rates by a further 50bps and hinted at further rate cuts to come. With inflationary pressures under control and the economic recovery struggling, more... 26th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: easing cycle not over yet The Central Bank of Sri Lanka left its deposit rate on hold (at 9.00%) today, and gave no hints at what its next move would be. However, with inflation set to remain low and growth likely to struggle... 23rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Xi’s visit to Vietnam, Sri Lanka on the mend Despite the close show of friendship on display this week during President Xi Jinping of China’s visit to Vietnam, our global fracturing map has Vietnam in the “lean US camp”. By leaning more towards... 15th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing coming sooner than most expect Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease... 7th December 2023 · 32 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again GDP growth rebounded strongly across most of Emerging Asia last quarter, but we doubt this strength will last. We expect growth to slow in the near term as weak exports and tight monetary and fiscal... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: further easing ahead The central bank (CBSL) today cut interest rates by a further 100bps. With inflation low and the economy still very depressed, further easing is likely over the coming months. 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
