Asia Economics Update Could Vietnam find itself in Trump’s crosshairs? Vietnam could take a number of measures to reduce its huge bilateral trade surplus with the US, notably stepping up its purchases of US farm products and clamping down on transshipments from China... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam to remain a regional outperformer in 2025 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in the fourth quarter of 2024 and we expect another year of strong growth in 2025, with the main support coming from exports. 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 16th December 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as... 13th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November) The November PMIs for Asia remained weak and are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing activity in the region to remain subdued in the near term. The data also showed a modest pick-up in... 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (July) The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia puts tariffs on China, rebound in Vietnam Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. But while the tariffs may help Indonesian producers maintain market share at home... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
