Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (July) The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia puts tariffs on China, rebound in Vietnam Indonesia has become the latest country in Asia to announce measures to stem the flow of cheap imports from China. But while the tariffs may help Indonesian producers maintain market share at home... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (May) The Manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Asia remained weak in May but have been a poor guide to the hard data on activity over the past year anyway. However, the PMIs have been a decent guide to price... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Political turmoil undermining Vietnam’s appeal The political turmoil in Vietnam, which has led to a number of key leaders being sacked from their posts, is undermining the country’s reputation for stability, which until now has been one of its key... 20th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (April) The PMIs from Emerging Asia remained weak in April. We think manufacturing activity across most of Asia will remain subdued in the near term but output in Taiwan and Korea is likely to hold up better... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will any other central banks hike interest rates? We are not expecting any other central banks in the region to follow Bank Indonesia and hike interest rates to support their currencies. However, one central bank worth monitoring is the State Bank of... 26th April 2024 · 9 mins read
