UK Economics Update How much damage would a Brexit “no deal” cause? Although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no-deal” Brexit on the economy are overdone, there is little doubt that it could deal a reasonable blow to GDP growth next year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) left it still pointing to strong German GDP growth, which will encourage the ECB to maintain a fairly optimistic tone when it meets... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate hikes on the horizon in Chile The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are moving towards tightening. This supports... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys softer at start of Q3, but still encouraging Preliminary PMIs for July fell but remain consistent with GDP expanding at a decent pace in advanced economies. The surveys also point to growing price pressures and slower world trade growth. 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A mixed month for financial markets Swiss and Nordic financial markets have been a mixed bag over the past month. Equities in most countries have risen, supported by continued fairly strong economic growth. But equities in Norway and... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Weakening investment intentions spell trouble Economic circumstances suggest that investment growth should be strengthening. Capacity utilisation is at a decade high, the unemployment rate is unusually low and wage growth is picking up. Machinery... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone PMI comes as something of a disappointment but the index is still consistent with a decent pace of GDP growth at the start of Q3. Accordingly, the ECB is likely to push... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (July) The manufacturing PMI fell back in July which suggests that the threat of a global trade war may be weighing on business confidence. At the same time, price pressures have continued to intensify. 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The 10-year outlook for EM consumer spending EM consumer spending growth looks set to be around two percentage points slower over the next decade compared with the previous one. Much of the slowdown will be due to Emerging Asia, especially China... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong oil production masking weakness elsewhere The economy appears to have had a stellar month in May, with a potential monthly gain in GDP of almost 1% implying that growth over the second quarter as a whole was close to 3% in annualised terms... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong growth will keep Fed hiking despite Trump The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
