UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) July’s Gfk/NOP survey showed that consumers became a little less optimistic at the start of the third quarter. But with real wages set to pick up pace in the coming months, there is scope for... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Activity proxy forewarning of 2% GDP growth Our New Zealand Activity Proxy suggests that the economy lost further momentum in June and that GDP may now be growing by just 2.0% a year. Most worrying are the signs that the slump in business... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest survey data suggest that a weaker renminbi is helping to dampen the impact of US tariffs but that domestic headwinds continued to weigh on economic activity in July. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) Even though job growth slowed in June, the unemployment rate remained very low. Meanwhile, industrial production rebounded last quarter which suggests that the economy returned to growth. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks becoming more hawkish The rise in inflation in most of Emerging Europe over the past month has caused central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone. Policymakers in Romania and the Czech Republic are likely to hike interest... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth starting to lose momentum Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth was stronger over Q2 as a whole than it was in Q1, but there are early signs that momentum faded towards the end of the quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mining boost to economic growth no flash in the pan Unlike the pre-tariff spike in soybean exports, the near-100% annualised surge in mining structures investment in the second quarter, which accounted for 0.4% points of the 4.1% annualised gain in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s rise in mortgage approvals is too small to suggest that a revival in mortgage lending is underway. Meanwhile, the unsecured borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports our view that euro-zone growth is slowing only slightly from a strong pace. But producers’ price expectations remain weak and... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) Our weighted-average of the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) dipped a little this month, but it still suggests that GDP growth across the region held up well at the... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q2) & Swiss KOF (Jul.) The Swedish economy grew very strongly in the first half of the year and is likely to continue performing well. This is set to drive wage growth gradually higher, prompting the Riksbank to raise... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Life without the booms The end of Australia’s housing boom and New Zealand’s migration boom mean that economic growth in both countries will probably fall short of expectations over the next couple of years. Australia may... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales in June suggests that consumer spending picked up again in Q2 which supports our view that the economy returned to growth last quarter. 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Temporary reprieve as EU-US trade tensions ease Given the openness of the Nordic & Swiss economies, their policymakers will have breathed a sigh of relief at the easing of trade tensions this week between the EU and the US. But should the current... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy riding wave of fiscal stimulus The acceleration in GDP growth, to an impressive 4.1% annualised in the second quarter, is principally due to the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed at the start of this year. Unfortunately, there is... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 4.1% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP should ensure that the Fed continues to hike its policy rate once every quarter, particularly as core PCE consumer prices increased by 2.0% annualised... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
