Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump’s latest tariffs up the stakes for EMs The size of the Trump administration’s latest proposed tariffs on imports from China – and the fact that neither side seems willing to back down – suggests that we’re moving towards a stage where... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of Trump’s China tariffs on the rest of Asia US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports represent a marked escalation of the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. The tariffs would have knock-on effects on... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy lost momentum at the start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed a touch in April, but we think that this will prove temporary. Growth is likely to pick-up sharply over the coming months as the Kingdom... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Healthcare insurance scheme will have limited impact In principle, Prime Minister Modi’s plan to introduce a health insurance scheme could bring numerous benefits, including from a narrow economic perspective. But the government is allocating very... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanded US tariffs strengthen case for policy easing The US is moving ahead with plans to impose a 10% tariff on an additional $200bn of imports from China. This will add to existing headwinds on China’s growth and is likely to trigger further policy... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Downbeat businesses pose a downside risk Our relatively bearish view that GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2.0% next year has always been based on the idea that the end of the migration and housing booms would weaken consumption... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Even though machinery orders dropped in May, their Q2 average is well above the Q1 average and suggests that investment spending picked up again last quarter. 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (May) Although GDP came in a touch below the consensus expectation in May, it still looks likely that quarterly growth in Q2 will be in line with the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) expectation. As a... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (Jun.) The latest drop in the SACCI Business Confidence Index strengthens our view that South Africa’s economy remained weak in Q2. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jul.), French & Italian Ind. Prod. (May) The further decline in German ZEW investor sentiment seems to reflect concerns about the impact of possible protectionist measures. But May’s industrial production data for France and Italy support... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
