US Economics Update Is the saving rate really that much higher? The upward revisions to the personal saving rate suggest that the consumption outlook could be brighter than we previously believed, but we would urge caution since those revisions are hard to square... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI decisive amid inflation rise The RBI opted to tighten policy again today against a backdrop of strong growth and rising inflation. The swiftness with which the central bank has responded to the jump in inflation should prevent... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July supports our view that the economy will strengthen in the second half of this year. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) July’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe made a soft start to Q3. What’s more, the surveys provide evidence that price pressures are building across most of the region. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in July, following the trend across most of Asia. Nevertheless, the reading remains decent, and prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Most of Emerging Asia’s PMIs fell in July. However, there were no clear signs in the PMI surveys that suggest the first tranche of US tariffs on Chinese goods that came into effect in early July have... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest Caixin manufacturing PMI reading suggests that the sector lost a little momentum in July. We expect further weakness ahead. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong growth in Q2 unlikely to last While global economic growth rebounded in Q2, it will probably slow again in the second half of this year and in 2019. The US will not be able to sustain annualised GDP growth of 4%, China’s economy... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth plateaued in Q2, but pick-up now underway Our GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth in Saudi Arabia plateaued in the first two months of Q2. But rising oil output is now providing a boost to the recovery and we expect that GDP growth will... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican GDP in Q2 was driven in part by a drop in agricultural production, which tends to be volatile, but growth in the services sector was also surprisingly weak. We... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Recent weakness appears increasingly broad-based Data released in July revealed a wide-spread economic slowdown across most of Sub-Saharan Africa. The available figures mostly suggest that conditions improved more recently, but that growth remained... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The consensus-beating 0.5% monthly rise in GDP means that growth over the second quarter as a whole looks to have been 3.0% in annualised terms. The Bank of Canada largely anticipated this strength... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What next for the Pakistani rupee? The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul.) & Unemp. (Jun.) Q2’s 0.3% quarterly rise in euro-zone GDP was a disappointment given hopes that the slowdown in Q1 reflected temporary factors. We still see growth regaining some pace as the year goes on, but for now... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: here comes the slowdown The latest hard activity data from Turkey has been surprisingly robust, but more timely survey evidence and low-profile data suggest that a sharp slowdown is underway. Officials are reportedly... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter to the second-fastest pace in more than three years. But with external headwinds increasing, we expect the economy to soften over the second half of the... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
