Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Health of labour market as unclear as ever Investor scepticism about much of China’s economic data is deep-rooted and the unemployment figures have long been considered among the worst of the lot. So the release this week of a new, survey... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Slow start to the year not a sign of things to come While the latest data suggest that the European economies made a weak start to the year, we do not see this as the start of a serious slowdown. The euro-zone in particular has more spare capacity than... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russian activity figures for March were generally quite soft, but it still looks like overall GDP growth picked up to about 2.0% y/y in Q1 from 0.9% y/y in Q4. The turmoil in local financial markets... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slowed in Q1 Today’s retail figures show that consumer spending was robust in Q1. The comparison with a very strong result in Q4 will depress q/q GDP growth this quarter, but we don’t think that this marks a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Services slowdown led by finance, transport and retail The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data released today suggests that although the IT sector has continued to boom, activity in the rest of the service sector has softened recently, offsetting a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) Distortions related to the Lunar New Year unwound in March, but we estimate that net trade still turned into a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% increase in industrial production in March, following the upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February, suggests that the factory sector is still in good health, although manufacturing output... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 1.9% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales in February means that the factory sector made a solid contribution to first-quarter economic growth but, looking further ahead, the softness of unfilled... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1) & Activity & Spending (Mar.) As expected, China’s GDP growth remained uncannily stable last quarter. In practice, growth is almost certainly slower than officials claim and looks to have edged down slightly last quarter. But the... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the stronger 0.4% m/m gain in underlying retail sales in March, real consumption growth looks to have slowed to around 1% annualised in the first quarter. Nonetheless, with incomes boosted by... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Economy set to outperform in 2018 After a recent drought-related slowdown, Uganda’s economy will pick up over the next few years as policy becomes more supportive and oil production plans are stepped up. We think that growth will... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Although it fell in April, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index remains at a high level by past standards and suggests that the slowdown in spending growth at the start of this year... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Economic recovery will peak this year We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by South Africa and Nigeria, where growth is set to pick up by more than... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Myanmar: still falling short of potential Myanmar’s civilian government has made progress in addressing some of the country’s problems since it came to power two years ago. However, major challenges remain. The Rohingya refugee crisis is... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read