Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Following June’s jump in exports and decline in imports, net trade appears to have made a decent positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. But with a variety of factors likely to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Further slowdown in Q2, but surveys bode well Disappointing euro-zone Q2 GDP data published this week have made our forecast of a 2.2% rise in GDP this year look optimistic. But July’s business surveys were more upbeat and suggest that a marked... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Perfect storm brewing in Turkey, BMW comes to Hungary The US’s decision to impose sanctions on Turkey this week, as well as another bad inflation reading, has strengthened the case for further interest rate hikes. And there’s a growing risk of severe... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ tested, GDP rebounding The outlines of the Bank of Japan’s new policy framework have become clearer during the week: a more flexible approach to intervention, a focus on preventing sharp moves, but also a tolerance of... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC presses ahead, economy makes a decent start to Q3 After the recent run of upbeat economic news the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to raise rates this week came as little surprise. And the hawkish tone of the Minutes and Inflation Report lent... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jul.) Despite falling in July, the Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the economy made a reasonable start to Q3, sustaining the pace of growth reached in Q2 of about 0.4% q/q. 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa: Rate cuts continue, land reform fears overdone While policymakers in other EMs are hiking rates, we think that African central banks will follow Kenya's recent example and continue to ease policy over the next 18 months. Fears surrounding the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lending, house prices and retail sales With the housing market slowdown in danger of morphing into the deepest and longest in Australia’s modern history, we doubt that the recent resilience of household spending will last. The risk is that... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./Q2) Households appear to be coping well with the hit to their real spending power from rising petrol prices and the hit to their net wealth from falling house prices. But with house prices starting to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 13.1% m/m jump in Brazilian industrial production in June confirmed that the sharp fall in output seen in May was a temporary result of the truck drivers’ strike in that month. But even so, it... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the fiesta over for the Spanish economy? The Spanish economy recorded its smallest quarterly expansion in four years in Q2 and the business surveys weakened again in July, suggesting that the period of very strong growth is at an end. But... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update PMI points to upside risks to growth and inflation Markit’s July PMI survey suggests that both GDP growth and inflation could increase to around 4% in the coming months. We doubt that either will rise that high, but the risks to the outlook seem to... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs that EMs are losing steam The fall in July’s EM manufacturing PMI adds to the evidence that economies across the emerging world are starting to lose some steam, while the breakdown of the surveys showed that price pressures... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) With the dollar strengthening, activity surveys weakening in other countries and concerns rising over the impact of tariffs, we suspect that, following July’s fall, the ISM manufacturing index will... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to softer Q3 The fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July supports our view that Q2 marked the peak in global growth. However, the slowdown now underway should be gradual for the next year or so. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances on the right track Egypt’s public finances are still in a poor state but the government has made progress in cutting the budget deficit in recent years and the debt ratio is now falling. The pace of fiscal consolidation... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
