Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s recovery? The hit to the Brazilian economy from May’s truck drivers’ strike already seems to be reversing. But the recent tightening of financial conditions means the recovery over the second half of the year... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP figures keep MPC on track, Brexit plan softened May’s GDP figures this week confirmed that the economy is starting to regain some momentum. That said, growth was still pretty anaemic, raising the possibility that the Monetary Policy Committee could... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: Conditions improved in Q2 Survey and output figures released this week suggested that conditions in Nigeria and South Africa improved in Q2. South African retail sales figures out next week will probably provide more evidence... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced) Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggests the economy lost some momentum in Q2, and we expect growth to cool further in the coming quarters against a backdrop of slower global growth and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing dominance will cushion tariff blow China has more to lose economically from a trade war than the US. But the damage as the Trump administration expands tariffs will be mitigated by China’s high market share in many of the targeted... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The disappointingly weak Mexican industrial production data for May suggest that the sector probably made a small negative contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in June and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last month’s hike in the repo rate with... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction eased in middle of Q2 Surprisingly positive figures from the mining and manufacturing sectors suggest that South Africa’s economy improved a bit last quarter. Even so, GDP probably continued to fall. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production offered welcome reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 did not mark the start of a downward trend. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO up in the air, Egypt inflation jumps Reports that Saudi Arabia will scrap the Aramco IPO would, if confirmed, deal a symbolic blow to the Kingdom’s reform plans, but the economic impact should be limited. And the news flow on arguably... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
