Japan Data Response External Trade (June) Today’s trade data show a renewed plunge in imports in June and suggest that net trade continued to support GDP growth in the second quarter. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data for Russia were a bit soft, but remain consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth from 1.3% y/y in Q1 to around 2.5% y/y in Q2. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales suggest improvement in Q2 Today’s unexpectedly strong retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy improved in the middle of Q2. The contraction seems to have bottomed out in April. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rebound in manufacturing output in June means the sector posted another near-2% gain in the second quarter overall but, with the dollar strengthening markedly in recent months and retaliatory... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Although manufacturing sales rebounded in May and the near-term outlook seems bright, the sector remains on track for a weak second quarter. In the longer-term, competitiveness issues and trade policy... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ lower its inflation target? The Bank of Japan’s admission that inflation won’t reach its 2% target anytime soon has generated speculation that the target will be lowered at the meeting later this month. By contrast, we believe... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector holds up despite slower retail spending The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data released today points toward resilient service sector activity last quarter, with the booming IT sector more than offsetting a slowdown in retail spending... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest projections still too optimistic We agree with the IMF’s global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 but suspect that their forecasts for 2019 will need to be lowered. We think that the US and Chinese economies will slow by more than the... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although underlying retail sales disappointed in June, upward revisions to earlier months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in the second... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Official GDP growth edged down last month but, unsurprisingly, remained rapid and in line with the government targets. Debates about the true pace of growth aside, it’s noteworthy that whereas in... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
