Global Economics Focus Where are the risks from property greatest? In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese export growth held steady last month with few signs of much impact from the first round of US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese exports, which came into force on 6th July. Import growth jumped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy’s recent strength unlikely to be sustained The economy’s strength towards the end of the second quarter is partly a bounce-back from earlier weakness and is therefore unlikely to be sustained. While the growing chance of a NAFTA deal being... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer slowdown should prove temporary Q2’s slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.3% q/q dealt a blow to hopes that the softness of growth in the first quarter would be a one-off. While no breakdown is available yet, timely data from France and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa manufacturing production (Jun.) Growth in South Africa’s manufacturing sector slipped to 0.7% y/y in June, but today’s figures still suggest that the economy just managed to dodge another quarter of q/q contraction in Q2. 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran, sanctions and the implications for the rest of MENA The re-introduction of the first tranche of US sanctions on Iran, which came into force today, will result in a downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s industrial production and trade figures suggest that the previously booming German economy is already feeling the effects of trade tensions. But with the domestic economy in good shape and... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Will higher female participation boost the economy? Only one-quarter of Indian women of working age are in paid employment. If participation in the workforce could increase to the rates of other Asian countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines by... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s prospects remain bright Morocco’s economy has slowed this year. But this is almost entirely a result of weakness in the agricultural sector, and we expect growth to strengthen in 2019. Moreover, as Morocco continues to... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about the slump in copper prices? The slide in the price of copper in the past few weeks has added to concerns about the health of the world economy. But while it may provide further evidence that China’s economy is slowing, we do not... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.3% y/y in Q2, from 5.1% in Q1, with a slowdown in investment growth compensated for by a pick-up in consumption and government spending. However, we doubt Indonesia’s... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Strong growth unlikely to last The world economy has rebounded after a sluggish first quarter, with global growth rising to around 4% annualised in Q2. But we doubt that this will last long because it has largely resulted from a... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly PMIs point to decent start to Q3 July’s PMIs for the Nordic and Swiss countries, which were published this week, suggest that these countries continued their strong performance at the start of Q3. Swiss inflation data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
