India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Indian industrial production growth jumped in June, and prospects for the sector remain relatively upbeat over the near term. That said, the recent hikes to tariffs on textiles imports could end up... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q2) The GDP figures confirmed that the economy bounced back after the weak start to the year and will reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that it was right to raise interest rates last week. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy slowed last quarter in year-on-year terms after expanding in Q1 at the fastest pace since 2011. Looking ahead, with headwinds from tightening monetary conditions building and... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Jokowi to stand again, tightening cycle to lose steam Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) confirmed earlier this week that he will be seeking a second term as president, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2014 election, which saw him narrowly edge past... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana Bank rescue, Mozambique debt talks The rescue of five small failing banks in Ghana should help to improve the (fragile) health of the sector and, in time, should help to support a recovery in credit growth. Elsewhere, the resumption of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ's cold feet, consumer spending boycott Media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan was close to hiking rates twice this year. But the decision to allow ten-year yields to rise a bit further above the 0% target placated the hawks on the... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Import duty hikes, monsoon update Recent hikes to import duties on various textiles products appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of the general election in early 2019. But while... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) While GDP started expanding again in the second quarter, growth isn’t as vigorous as last year. With the economy running into capacity constraints, we think that activity will remain sluggish for now. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A closer look at “bellwethers” of the global economy Some commonly-cited indicators suggest that the global economy has lost momentum recently. But a closer look indicates that most of these do not have a very good relationship with GDP growth. And... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-Canada spat, Iran sanctioned The diplomatic spat that erupted between Saudi Arabia and Canada this week should have little economic impact, but it does risk undermining investor confidence in Saudi Arabia at a time when the... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Today’s figures show GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in the second quarter. Looking ahead, we expect the slowdown in GDP growth to continue over the second half of this year as tighter monetary... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jun.) Even though machinery orders fell further in June, they still rose last quarter and we’ve pencilled in an increase in non-residential investment in tomorrow’s GDP release. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of a trade war on the UK The macroeconomic impact on the UK of the tariffs which the US has already imposed on the EU and of the retaliatory tariffs which the EU has imposed on the US, will be trivial. The threat of... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
