Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The surprising 0.3% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in July probably seals the deal on a 50bp interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting on 18th September. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound, but underlying growth weak South Africa’s economy made a surprisingly strong recovery in Q2, growing by 3.1% q/q saar, but growth remained weak at a year-on-year rate. Given soft demand and low petrol prices, we expect that... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2) The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in August, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains weak. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q rise in Turkish GDP in Q2 has prompted us to revise up our 2019 GDP forecast to -0.8% (previously -1.8%). But there’s a growing risk that policymakers’ efforts to... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Despite dropping in August, the recent manufacturing PMI readings paint a healthier picture of the sector than the Q2 GDP data released last week. That said, they won’t provide a hurdle to additional... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Weak trade data for Korea and the weakness of regional manufacturing PMIs in August suggest that economic conditions failed to improve in the middle of this quarter. While we suspect that regional GDP... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Another unexpectedly weak quarter of growth in India strengthens the case for further easing of fiscal and monetary policy. We expect both over the rest of this year. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Aug.) Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
