Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Trade war still not a major threat to Australia The trade war has probably lowered Chinese demand for Australian exports by curbing investment in factories and warehouses. But the trade tensions have contributed to the weakening of the Australian... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to worrying drop-off in investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a drop in business equipment investment over the rest of the year and provide more evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Aug.) Exports fell last month as global demand softened and US tariffs continued to take their toll. Imports improved thanks to strong infrastructure spending but remain consistent with a further economic... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What do rising house prices mean for the economy? The recent strong pace of house price gains is unlikely to last as income growth is set to remain subdued. We expect house prices to rise by around 5% next year and in 2021. A rebound in house prices... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine optimism overdone, robust growth in CEE Ukraine’s President Volodymr Zelensky has hit the ground running in his bid to push key reforms through the Rada. Markets have taken these developments, as well as the strong Q2 GDP figures... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP, weak PMIs, but optimism from Eskom GDP figures from the region’s two biggest economies painted a mixed picture. While growth in Nigeria slowed a touch, the rebound in South Africa was stronger than we had expected. Even so, we think... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak consumer confidence, BoJ pre-emptive easing? The recent slump in consumer confidence underlines that consumer spending will fall sharply after October’s sales tax hike. But it doesn’t tell us much about the extent of the slowdown and the fact... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Recession trackers: A guide to our new models The inversion of the yield curve and the deterioration in survey-based indicators have raised fears that the US is headed for a recession, but the hard economic data and other financial indicators... 5th September 2019 · 21 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q2) The fact that the Swiss economy grew slightly faster than we had expected in Q2 is of limited solace given the sizeable downward revisions to the back data. The risks to our GDP forecast this year are... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in July was probably driven by a decline in export volumes so we doubt that net trade provided much of a boost to GDP growth in Q3. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that Australia’s economy has come through the housing downturn with cuts and bruises but hasn’t faltered. Even so, we only expect a sluggish recovery. 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in August, from 51.2, left the index at its lowest level since January 2016 and points to another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The surprising 0.3% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in July probably seals the deal on a 50bp interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting on 18th September. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound, but underlying growth weak South Africa’s economy made a surprisingly strong recovery in Q2, growing by 3.1% q/q saar, but growth remained weak at a year-on-year rate. Given soft demand and low petrol prices, we expect that... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
