India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness in retail sales in July underlines that consumers have yet to bring forward spending ahead of October’s sales tax hike. That suggests that consumption won’t fall off a cliff once the tax... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown bottoms out in Q2 The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African reform: Two steps forward, one step back Officials in Ethiopia and South Africa enacted or proposed key economic reforms this month, while their peers in Nigeria retreated towards more protectionist policymaking. Recent developments have... 29th August 2019 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2019) The surprisingly strong 0.4% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 confirms that the extremely weak activity recorded earlier this year was a blip rather than the start of a renewed downturn. But the... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How does a Brexit deadline influence GDP growth? The surge and contraction in GDP over the first half of the year can be blamed on the original 29th March Brexit deadline. While we expect a similar pattern in Q3/Q4 due to the current 31st October... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for August suggest that regional growth remained strong in Q3 at a little under 4% y/y. 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Treasury plan puts pressure on president The unexpected release of economic reform proposals by South Africa’s treasury is probably an attempt to push the president to announce a more ambitious plan at October’s budget speech. The plan... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q2) This morning’s release of Q2 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy remains a bright spot in the Nordics. But given that oil prices are now in line with our end-year forecast of $60pb, we... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs China’s share of global exports has increased over the past year, despite US tariffs. Renminbi depreciation and the transhipments of goods to the US via neighbouring countries can take much of the... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) The rebound in machinery and equipment investment won’t be enough to offset a slump in construction activity and private investment probably fell the most since 2016 in the second quarter. However... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs The trade deal that the US and Japan have negotiated won’t provide major benefits for Japan’s economy. And while it seems to have reduced the risk that the US imposes any tariffs on Japanese car... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
