Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further to 0.5% y/y in Q2 and, in quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy officially entered recession. The slowdown reflected a greater drag from oil output cuts... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks return to the fore Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on... 30th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) China’s manufacturing PMIs jumped this month, indicating that activity got a break from the ongoing slowdown. But this is unlikely to mark the start of a turnaround. There are signs of a slowdown in... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much damage will the tax hike do? Tomorrow’s tax hike is likely to do less immediate damage to economic growth in Japan than previous increases. But it is still likely to trigger a sizeable fall in GDP in Q4. A rapid rebound next year... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The surge in retail sales in August underlines that a last-minute spending in spree ahead of the sales tax hike is still possible. That means that consumption may fall by more than the 1.3% q/q drop... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s consumer recovery, Mexico’s USMCA fears Figures published this week support our view that Brazilian household spending will strengthen over the coming quarters. But with the 2020 budget setting out further fiscal tightening, the overall... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending (Aug.) The modest rise in personal spending in August suggests that third-quarter consumption growth was weaker than we had previously anticipated, while the durable goods data indicate that business... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Headwinds to growth blowing harder Despite the headwinds from the global economic slowdown and the political chaos around Brexit, there are still good reasons to think that GDP grew in Q3. However, it is clear that the performance of... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM consumers helping to offset industrial weakness The recent stabilisation in EM GDP growth has come alongside further evidence that solid consumer spending is helping to offset weakness in industry. We expect this trend to continue in the coming... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Sep.) The renewed fall in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence that the region’s economy slowed further in Q3. For now, the weakness is concentrated in the manufacturing... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for September suggest that growth held steady at 4.0% y/y in Q3. But with the industrial surveys deeply negative and signs that... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s small rise in consumer confidence probably reflects the falling chances of a no deal Brexit rather than an improvement in the underlying economy. And it still leaves confidence at a pretty... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
