Global Economics Update Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in Q2 After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May.) The flash PMIs for the euro-zone continued to disappoint in May and suggest that the economic growth dropped back again in the second quarter. And with the Ifo Business Climate Index having fallen to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales growth was flattered in March by higher gasoline prices and the unwinding of temporary factors that had weighed on sales in February. We expect overall consumer spending growth to lag... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit events raise risk economy is in limbo for longer The reaction to Theresa May’s “new” Brexit deal suggests that the chances of a deal have fallen and the chances of another delay, a no deal, no Brexit and/or a general election have all risen. It’s... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions may exacerbate retail sales slump Retail sales growth slowed sharply in April, to its slowest pace since the SARS outbreak in 2003. While part of the weakness can be explained by a drop in fuel prices, the slowdown was not limited to... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in car sales exaggerating consumption weakness The recent sharp drop in vehicle sales might signal that household consumption has slumped. But a significant part of the drop in sales can be explained by industry-specific factors including higher... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) Despite the rise in March’s core machinery orders, investment in machinery and transport equipment is likely to have fallen in the first quarter. Early indicators also suggest that orders will remain... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Rebound in productivity growth has further to run The unexpected 0.5% q/q rise in GDP and the 3% q/q plunge in total hours worked in the first quarter meant that productivity rose at its fastest pace in nearly four years. That makes sense because... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No smoking gun in German industrial slowdown While the sharp downturns in the German motor vehicle and chemical sectors have attracted a lot of attention, the weakness of other sectors accounts for more of the slowdown in production since 2017... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Thailand slowed to a four-year low in the first quarter of the year, and with exports set to remain weak, we expect growth to stay subdued. The uncertain political situation is the main... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Modi on the cusp of victory Exit polls signal that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP and its coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance have won India’s election. Admittedly, exit polls have been wrong in the past, not least... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What’s behind the slump in commodity producers? The weakness in EM commodity producers at the start of the year seems to reflect a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. But the key point is that many commodity producers are yet to fully... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read