RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q2) Following the slowing in annual GDP growth in Q2, we suspect that economic activity will remain subdued throughout 2019 as soft business conditions and weak global growth weigh on growth. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French industry looks resilient to German slowdown We expect French industrial production growth to slow in the coming year or so. But it should continue to outperform German industry thanks to its focus on less cyclical products such as food, energy... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy maintained a steady, if not inspiring, pace of growth in Q3. With growth unlikely to pick up markedly over the rest of the year... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery loses momentum Activity data for July suggest that South Africa’s recovery lost steam at the start of Q3. We remain comfortable with our below-consensus growth forecast of 0.5% for this year as a whole. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in August, which was driven by manufacturing, suggests that the drag on US producers from weaker global demand may be starting to... 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
India Economics Focus A US$5trn economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 17th September 2019 · 11 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) After worsening across the board in July, growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales fell even further last month. And with a strong rebound unlikely any time soon, we... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The anatomy of the vehicle sale slump Data released this week showing a further slump in passenger vehicle sales growth in August partly reflects broader weakness in consumption. But with industry-specific factors also at play and other... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Headline consumer price inflation held steady in August and remained comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4.0%. This is the last set of CPI data that will be released before the MPC next meets in... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery already waning Despite the slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, the batch of activity figures for July suggests that South Africa’s economic recovery in Q2 faded at the start of Q3. This adds to reasons... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s small fall in euro-zone industrial production marked a soft start to Q3 and the surveys suggest that the downturn will continue, encouraging the ECB that it is right to loosen policy later... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) The drop in machinery orders in July didn’t reverse the jump in June and we still think that business investment rose at a strong pace in Q3. However, a renewed fall after October’s sales tax hike is... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: close to a turning point, but growth to disappoint The slowdown in Qatar’s economy over the past decade should come to an end in the coming quarters as the start of production at the Barzan gas project boosts growth in the hydrocarbon sector. But... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
