Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 3.6% y/y in Q4 to 1.6% y/y in Q1 was due to weak domestic demand and problems in the copper sector, which hit exports. And while the consensus expects a strong... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) The surprising resilience of the economy at the start of the year means that GDP growth will be stronger this year than we had anticipated. It also suggests that the government will press ahead with... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2019) The much weaker-than-anticipated Russian Q1 GDP growth figure of 0.5% y/y is consistent with a q/q contraction in output. We think that this probably marks the trough and growth should pick up over... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially ledus to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Following transport-related disruption in February, manufacturing sales more than made up for that earlier weakness with a 2.1% m/m rise in March. Given the subdued tone of the business surveys... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially led us to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What might trigger a hard landing? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 28 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Following a slight slowdown in the first quarter, Malaysia’s economy is set to lose further momentum over the rest of the year as tighter fiscal policy, weaker consumer spending and a tough external... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read