China Economics Weekly Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion Beijing’s new airport is a timely microcosm of a nationwide trend in which local governments have built unusually extensive infrastructure, much of which is under-utilised. As a result, investment... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Cracks showing in Central Europe The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) shrugged off ongoing troubles in the euro-zone economy for most of 2019 but the latest data offer evidence that this now taking a bigger toll... 26th September 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines easing cycle has further to run Today’s cut to the policy rate by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) from 4.25% to 4.00% is unlikely to be the last in the easing cycle. With growth likely to disappoint and price pressures set... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more comfortable with its position when it left rates on hold today but we still think the Bank will cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economies losing further momentum Flash PMIs for September suggest that advanced economies ended Q3 on a weak footing. The surveys also point to weaker exports, jobs growth and core inflation. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone economy to slow, forcing ECB to do more We are cutting our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in 2020 and expect inflation to stay close to 1%. Moreover, we think the ECB will revise its inflation target in the coming months, then cut its... 24th September 2019 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) Our composite model suggests that the risk of a recession in 12-months’ time has fallen slightly to 17.9%, from above 20% a few weeks ago, as the rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield has reduced the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will India be a $5 trillion economy by 2025? Since securing re-election this year, the Modi government has made it a formal aim to almost double the size of India’s economy to US$5trn by March 2025. In our view, the government is likely to fall... 23rd September 2019 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI supports our view that economic growth in the currency union has slowed in Q3. And with no sign that core inflation is rising, and the ECB’s latest... 23rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down as property construction levels off Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remains resilient but has edged down slightly since the end of Q2. With property construction no longer accelerating and broader activity still... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The relatively weak batch of Polish activity data for August suggest that euro-zone weakness is taking an increasing toll on the Polish economy. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing from 4.4% y/y... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s GDP figures overstating health of economy Sri Lanka’s economy held up better than we had expected last quarter given the drag from the recent terrorist attacks on the country. But we suspect that the published figures overstate the real... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Further rate cuts likely Today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly signals that its main priority at the moment is supporting the struggling economy. While we think further easing is likely, the central bank is likely... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
