Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stimulus to drive rebound in growth India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain... 8th October 2019 · 19 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the diverging manufacturing surveys Other surveys suggest that the ISM manufacturing index is over-playing the extent of the factory-sector slowdown. But the wider evidence suggests the outlook for manufacturers is still pretty poor. 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru’s political crisis, dire surveys in Mexico The political turmoil that erupted in Peru earlier this week now seems to be fizzling out, supporting our view that it will have a limited impact on the economy. Elsewhere, we suspect that the Mexican... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth stable in Q3, Malaysia’s 2020 budget Countries from across the region are due to publish third quarter GDP figures over the coming weeks. The latest monthly data suggest that after slowing sharply in the first half of the year, economic... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI prolongs easing cycle The Reserve Bank reverted back to a 25bp rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing in the near term. But we are firmly non-consensus in expecting modest rate hikes by the end of... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales growth remained subdued in August despite the government’s tax cuts which suggests that economic activity did not recover strongly in the second half of 2019. 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Chilean consumption will be temporary Chile’s economic slowdown this year was mostly due to weaker private consumption, caused by a fall in consumer confidence. But with the labour market strengthening and copper prices likely to rise... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The downward revision to September’s euro-zone PMI leaves it consistent with zero growth at the end of Q3, as the contraction in Germany’s economy appears to have accelerated and spread to the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services & All-Sector PMI (Sep.) The drop in the IHS/Markit services PMI to a six-month low of 49.5 in September means that all three sector PMIs are now below the 50-mark which theoretically separates expansion from contraction... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs provided further evidence of a divergence between non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. But we don’t think this will continue for much longer as the UAE... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
