India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged in January to an eight-year high and defied the trend across the rest of Asia. Though the reading may fall back as fears over the coronavirus dents sentiment, the big... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) While the Caixin manufacturing PMI edged down last month, the survey was conducted too early to tell us much about the extent of the economic damage from the Coronavirus outbreak. The February survey... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery from weak Q4 will be slow and gradual The raft of Q4 GDP data published this week were weaker than we or the consensus had expected. While the surveys for January show a small improvement in sentiment and activity, they are still... 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & HICP (Jan.) The Q4 GDP and January consumer prices data published today support our view that euro-zone growth and inflation will be weaker this year than most expect. This underlies our forecast that the ECB... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) The official PMIs show that manufacturing activity weakened, and non-manufacturing strengthened, in the lead-up to the Coronavirus outbreak. The following months’ PMIs will give insight into how... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) While consumer spending remained subdued in December following October’s sales tax hike, the continued resilience of the labour market suggests that this has yet to discourage firms from hiring new... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The 2.1% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was not quite as solid as it looked, with consumption growth slowing and business investment contracting for a third consecutive quarter. Nevertheless... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price drop, Lebanon default risk, failed Saudi attacks The fall in oil prices on the back of fears about the coronavirus outbreak in China doesn’t pose a significant threat to Gulf economies, but it has raised the chances of deeper OPEC+ oil production... 30th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe point to regional GDP growth slowing to a fresh three-year low of 3.2% y/y in Q1. With signs that weak external... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Annual GDP (2019) The weaker-than-expected 2019 Polish GDP growth figure of 4.0% suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year. Softer activity reinforces our view that the MPC will look... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Consumer confidence was unchanged in January, suggesting households are still reluctant to spend in the wake of the sales tax hike. We think consumer spending will remain soft, which should contribute... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
