China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) An uptick in activity in September didn’t avert a slowdown last quarter. And policy support is unlikely to prevent cooling external demand and slowing construction from resulting in more weakness... 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will eventually push the QE button The drop in the unemployment rate in September means that the RBA won’t cut interest rates in November. But we still expect the labour market and underlying inflation to weaken over the coming months... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The soft Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was in line with Q2’s sluggish outturn of 0.9% y/y. Coming alongside low inflation, another 25bp interest rate... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in September was principally due to the GM strike, which dragged down autos production, and the unseasonably warm weather, which depressed utilities... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: GDP flat in August, risk of Q3 contraction South Africa’s retail sector didn’t perform as badly as the mining or manufacturing sectors in August, but there is still a growing risk the economy contracted over Q3 as a whole. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The decline in headline inflation from 1.7% in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3 is unlikely to concern the RBNZ as it was still above their forecast in August. But we think subdued activity will mean that underlying... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s weak economic performance to continue Economic growth in Kuwait is likely to remain sluggish in the coming years due to the impact of oil production cuts as well as ongoing tensions between the government and parliament, which will... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Update A Brexit deal would transform the near-term outlook A Brexit deal is still unlikely, but it would remove much of the uncertainty that has caused firms to hold off investment projects and consumers to rein in their spending, and would therefore result... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production is nowhere near enough to offset the previous two months’ declines, and so output in Q3 as a whole is likely to have fallen sharply. This... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish industrial production in August is likely to prove a bump in the road, with more timely survey evidence pointing to a recovery over the coming months. That... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could banks start charging savers if the BoJ cut rates? Recent suggestions that the Bank of Japan will cut its policy rate have fuelled speculation that Japanese banks might be forced to start passing on negative interest rates to savers. But given that... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read