Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Consumer confidence was unchanged in January, suggesting households are still reluctant to spend in the wake of the sales tax hike. We think consumer spending will remain soft, which should contribute... 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Monitoring for contagion Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) estimate for China’s rate of growth in December is somewhat academic at this point but, for what it’s worth, it showed the economy holding up well. Measures to constrain... 28th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The December durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment fell again in the fourth quarter. But the recent improvement in the survey evidence suggests it should soon start to rebound... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s batch of Russian activity data suggests that GDP growth in Q4 was broadly unchanged from Q3’s 1.7% y/y, but the economy appears to have lost steam at the end of the quarter. That... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tourism to drag regional growth lower as virus spreads A sharp fall in Chinese tourist arrivals will hit economic growth in Emerging Asia hard this quarter. The impact will be even more severe if the disruption spreads to the region’s industrial sectors. 28th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A poor end to the decade for Saudi Arabia’s economy Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened at the end of last year as the drag from oil production cuts intensified. A recovery is likely to take hold this year, but... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Official growth forecasts still too optimistic 24th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The large rebound in January’s flash activity PMIs will probably be enough to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from cutting interest rates at next Thursday’s meeting. After all, it’s the surest... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance The surge in inbound tourism in general and in Chinese tourist arrivals in particular means that the Wuhan coronavirus may knock off around 0.5%-pt from GDP growth in the first quarter. Amid mounting... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s wiggle room won’t last The improvement in the labour market in December alongside the surge in retail sales in November should be enough to keep the RBA on the sidelines in February. But we think weak economic activity will... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s flash manufacturing PMI showed activity in the sector has finally started to rebound. That’s consistent with recent signs of recovery in domestic and global demand. However, we think any... 24th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
