Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in August was mostly driven by a decline in export prices so we doubt that net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3. Even so, we estimate that the contribution... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economic struggles to continue Dubai’s economy slowed in 2018 and the activity data for this year suggest that growth has stayed weak. The 2020 World Expo will provide a fillip to the economy, but a number of other factors mean... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a decade low of 47.8 in September, from 49.1, will reignite fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. Our guess is that this deterioration is at... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The better-than-expected 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was driven by rapid growth in the mining sector, which won’t be sustained. Even so, the figures add to the evidence that the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global industry not out of the woods yet The global manufacturing PMI picked up again in September, but this was largely due to a jump in China’s index that we don’t think will be sustained. While it is still too early to call time on the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The manufacturing PMI reading held steady in September, but this barely captured the impact of the recent large-scale corporate tax cut. Looser fiscal policy and the likelihood of further monetary... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement at the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The 10% annualised rise in house prices in September is unsustainable in light of sluggish income growth. We expect prices to rise by a slower 5% in 2020 and 2021. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) & Labour Market (Aug.) The latest Tankan survey shows that business conditions are holding up better than expected while the labour market remains very tight. And even though firms are turning more cautious about the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q3) Business conditions prove resilient According to today’s Tankan survey, business conditions held up better last quarter than most had anticipated but the further deterioration in firms’ capital... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further to 0.5% y/y in Q2 and, in quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy officially entered recession. The slowdown reflected a greater drag from oil output cuts... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks return to the fore Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on... 30th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) China’s manufacturing PMIs jumped this month, indicating that activity got a break from the ongoing slowdown. But this is unlikely to mark the start of a turnaround. There are signs of a slowdown in... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
