Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s marginal rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI is fairly disappointing after September’s large fall and reinforces our view that economic growth in the currency union is at a virtual... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The decline in the manufacturing PMI to a three-year low in October is consistent with continued falls in industrial output. But a slump in inventories could be a sign that firms have underestimated... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor Uptick in industry nudges up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3, provisional) GDP growth was sluggish in Q3, but looser fiscal and monetary policy should help the economy to regain some momentum in the quarters ahead. With external headwinds set to remain, the rebound in growth... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would QE work in Korea? There have been suggestions that the Bank of Korea (BoK) might soon need to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being tried by the world’s major central banks. However, evidence... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over Early indicators suggest that GDP growth stabilised across Emerging Asia last quarter. While we think the worst is now over for the region, the recovery will be slow going. 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts (and charts) on the auto sector Our best guess is that vehicle production in the euro-zone will stabilise at around its current level over the next year. If so, the sector would subtract 0.2% from GDP this year, but neither add to... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September suggest that GDP growth slowed from 4.5% y/y in Q2 to 3.8-4.0% y/y in Q3. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Construction strength offset by industry weakness The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows that a slowdown in industry overshadowed strength in the construction sector. The headwinds to the construction sector should only... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Export volumes probably rebounded in the third quarter which should provide some relief for the Bank of Japan. But as external demand is set to weaken further, we think export volumes will fall at a... 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Halkbank charges highlight Turkey’s banking sector risks The five-day ceasefire in Syria agreed by Turkey and the US yesterday has prompted a rally in Turkish markets and probably means that the central bank will press ahead with another large interest rate... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flirts with autarky, South Africa slows The Nigerian government’s decision to ban all trade across the country’s land borders on Tuesday will only have a small macroeconomic impact, but it highlights the worrying shift towards more... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) An uptick in activity in September didn’t avert a slowdown last quarter. And policy support is unlikely to prevent cooling external demand and slowing construction from resulting in more weakness... 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
