UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Apr.) April’s GDP figures suggest that the Brexit hangover in Q2 has been heavier than we had expected. We had previously thought GDP would rise by 0.2% q/q in Q2 as a whole, but it’s now possible that GDP... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) While exports rose in May, weaker global demand and the escalating trade war suggest that they will start to fall again before long. 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade tensions to weigh on growth April’s trade data painted a positive picture of the manufacturing sector, but the further fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the outlook for exporters is bleak. Conditions could... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mexico tariffs pose significant risk for the autos sector The impact on prices of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports would be partly offset by a sharp drop in the peso. But the potential disruption to the motor vehicle industry, which relies on a continued flow... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan caught in the crossfire While it hopes to secure its own trade deal with the US before long, Japan risks getting caught in the crossfire of other US trade disputes. The prospect of a 25% tariff on all goods imported from... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read