Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) The 1.9% annualised increase in third-quarter GDP, down only marginally from the 2.0% gain in the second, was a little stronger than we had expected. But it still pushed the economy’s annual growth... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Mexican GDP in Q3 makes another interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November almost certain. The data release increases the likelihood of a larger 50bp... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct) & France GDP (Q3) The decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in October adds to the evidence that the economy started Q4 on weak footing. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for October provided firmer evidence that weakness in manufacturing sectors in Central and Eastern Europe is now spreading to consumer... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Tepid recovery on the horizon Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
India Economics Focus The long-term impact of demonetisation Three years after the shock announcement that the bulk of India’s bank notes were being withdrawn, any benefits from “demonetisation” should be evident by now. But the promised gains haven’t... 30th October 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The surge in retail sales ahead of the sales tax hike on 1st October was as large as the one seen before 1997’s sales tax hike. We’ve pencilled in a 1.7% q/q slump in consumption in the fourth quarter... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Who’s investing and who’s not? The weakness in business investment since the EU referendum has been concentrated in IT & machinery, transport and non-residential buildings so those areas may enjoy the biggest rebound if there is a... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) With the yield curve un-inverting, our composite model indicates that the probability of a recession in 12 months’ time has fallen to 11.7%, from a recent peak of more than 20%. Nevertheless, we... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Worse is still to come for advanced economies Flash PMIs for October indicate that underlying momentum in advanced economies has continued to weaken at the start of Q4. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
