India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4 2019) We think that the slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 3.0% y/y in Q3 to 1.8% y/y in Q4 will be temporary and expect that the economy will recover more quickly than most expect this year. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic rebound in progress, but clouds on the horizon The first official data for January piled more evidence onto our view that the economy will rebound in Q1 2020 after hitting a nadir in Q4 2019. But the growing impact of coronavirus on China’s... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evidence of Q1 contraction continues to mount New data this week on electricity usage in one of China’s largest provinces suggest that activity in the construction, wholesale and retail, and industrial sectors has been running at half the usual... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan. 2020) The batch of Polish activity data for January suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 3.2% y/y at the start of the year. With headwinds to growth building, the risks to our 2020 GDP... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) The renewed drop in the manufacturing PMI coupled with a slump in the services PMI suggests that the coronavirus has started to take a toll on Japan’s economy. 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean trade data for the first 20 days of February add to the evidence that factory closures in China are disrupting local industry. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) January’s batch of Russian activity data suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 1.8% y/y. While some of the recent props to growth have started to fade, policy support is likely to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economic impact of coronavirus to worsen With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Korea jumping sharply over the past few days, the Bank of Korea is almost certain to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Three key questions on the Vodafone dispute The Supreme Court’s ruling that Vodafone’s joint venture in India must pay up to US$7bn in retrospective levies and penalties has grabbed headlines over the past few days. In this Update, we answer... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Dec.) & External Trade (Jan.) Exports fell by less than expected last month but net trade is set to be a major drag on GDP growth this quarter. Coronavirus-related disruption should contribute to net trade knocking around 0.6%pts... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 18th February 2020 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy at risk of falling into recession, again After Italy’s economy shrank at the end of last year, it looks set to continue to struggle in 2020. In fact, there is a clear risk that it falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008. 18th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus to knock off 0.3% from GDP this year A slump in tourist arrivals has been the initial channel through which the virus outbreak in China has harmed Japan’s economy and will most likely knock around 0.4%-pts off GDP growth in Q1. As long... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
