Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for April provide the first hard evidence that, after returning to growth in Q1, the economy contracted again in Q2. This supports our view... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in May was largely due to a weather-related 2.1% m/m bounce-back in utilities output. Given the weak global backdrop and the deteriorating survey evidence... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly GDP doubts resurface The release this week of analysis by Arvind Subramanian questioning the quality of India’s GDP data has caused a stir. Questions about India’s data are not new. We argued that the new methodology used... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “nonsense output gap” is not the big issue Some commentators have argued that technicalities around estimates of euro-zone countries’ output gaps have led to excessively-tight fiscal policy. While we have some sympathy with this view, in Italy... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to a better start of Q2 Mining figures for April released today were softer than expected, but stronger conditions in the rest of the economy suggest that the second quarter started on a brighter note. This means that South... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s decline in euro-zone industrial production, together with timelier survey data, suggests that the sector performed poorly in Q2. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do the protests mean for Hong Kong’s economy? The immediate economic impact of the protests in Hong Kong will be very small. But continued erosion of Hong Kong’s autonomy, which is threatened by the proposed extradition law, would undermine a key... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) While India's headline inflation edged up in May and is likely to rise further, a sizeable fall in core inflation will be seen by policymakers at the RBI as vindication of their view that there is... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) While machinery orders rose for the third straight month in April, we still expect business investment growth to slow this year as rising uncertainty over the economic outlook takes its toll. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus How will the Bank respond to the next downturn? The risk of a recession is arguably higher in Canada than elsewhere and the low level of interest rates limits the ability of the Bank of Canada to respond. Even if the Bank utilises unconventional... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read