Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The slight rise in machinery orders in January suggests that business investment was recovering – albeit slowly – before the coronavirus began to dent economic activity from all angles. We think a... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A recession and more policy action is coming As it seems increasingly inevitable that a further spread of the coronavirus will have a significant impact on the economy, we are changing our forecasts. We now expect a recession that will involve... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Growing evidence that economic activity is collapsing We now expect Japan’s economy to contract by 2% this year. There is mounting evidence that consumers are self-isolating which is weighing on household spending and passenger transport. School closures... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Travel ban, oil windfall, market rout The direct economic impact of the government’s suspension of foreign visas will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive domestic measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus over the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower oil prices are not great for Australians Lower oil prices and government transfer payments may boost household disposable incomes in the coming months. But we think the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising number of cases of the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update More aggressive containment measures to hit growth The direct economic impact of President Donald Trump’s European travel ban will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive measures to contain the pandemic over the next few days – with... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Brief respite after Q4, but another contraction likely Early signs suggest that economic conditions improved at the start of Q1, but disruptions caused by the coronavirus make it likely that output will have fallen later in the quarter and going into Q2... 12th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian fiscal stimulus may avert a recession The large fiscal stimulus package unveiled today may be able to prevent a recession. But we still expect the RBA to cut rates to 0.25% and launch quantitative easing over the next few months. 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The stagnation in GDP in January shows that the economy was weak even before people started worrying about the coronavirus. And our more timely measures of activity, such as weekly cinema sales... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A worst-case hit to GDP from the coronavirus As central forecasts for GDP growth are less useful during times of high uncertainty, this Update illustrates some alternative scenarios of how the coronavirus could influence the UK economy based on... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ heading for a sharp but (probably) short recession In the current circumstances, any economic forecasts come with a huge pinch of salt. But we now think the euro-zone economy will experience a deep slump in Q2 this year, causing GDP to decline by more... 10th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Counting the cost of the coronavirus outbreak In a moderate scenario where demand returns to pre-coronavirus levels by year-end, we estimate that the outbreak of the disease will knock off 1% from GDP growth this year. In a more severe scenario... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update How vulnerable is Japan to supply chain disruptions? Manufacturers in Japan are on the whole less dependent on imported components than those in other major rich economies and so are less vulnerable to global supply chain disruption. But there’s a... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
