Emerging Markets Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand cuts rates, more easing likely The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut its key policy rate to 1.25% today, and with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank will... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland to slow in line with rest of euro-zone Economic growth in Finland outpaced the euro-zone average before the global financial crisis but has been broadly in line with it in recent years. We think that this trend will continue and that... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) October’s whole economy PMIs suggest that the upturn in fortunes for Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector continued at the start of Q4. In contrast, the recent slump in the UAE appears to be more than just a... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at this rate in the third quarter. Our... 5th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The drop in Turkish inflation last month probably marks the trough and inflation is likely to rise over the coming months. Pressure from President Erdogan and recent sanguine inflation forecasts from... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The decline in real retail sales in the third quarter suggests that consumption growth remained subdued. And with the bulk of the tax refunds already paid, the outlook for the fourth quarter isn’t... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update At least the PMIs aren’t getting any worse Manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that global industry remained weak at the start of Q4. However, we take some comfort from the fact that, at the world level, the surveys have stopped... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The muted rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.3 in October, which left it only slightly higher that September’s decade low of 47.8, takes some of the shine off the better-than-expected... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in September serves as a reminder that, while the economy is now strengthening, it will be a weak and bumpy recovery. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Nord Stream 2, Turkish inflation, Romania’s budget The Danish government’s decision to approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline this week is widely seen as a victory for Russia, who could potentially halt energy supplies to Ukraine. But with the... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the manufacturing PMI recovered in October from September’s extremely weak level, it is still consistent with a recession in the manufacturing sector. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read