Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4) The decline in GDP growth in New Zealand in the fourth quarter shows that the economy was struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak which will surely drag the New Zealand economy into recession in... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn now set to be deeper than the financial crisis What were downside risks to the global economy just a few days ago are fast morphing into our central scenario. We now expect global GDP to fall by about 1% this year, which would be twice the decline... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update GDP to plunge in Q2, but hit can still be contained The rapid escalation of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak suggests that the economic damage will be even larger than we anticipated only a few days ago, and we are now pencilling in a 10%... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Worsening outbreak will prompt SARB to cut Activity data from January suggest that the economy was already contracting before the coronavirus reached South Africa. The outbreak will add to economic headwinds. Policymakers are likely to spring... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a sharp contraction in Q2 The restrictive measures implemented by the authorities across Central and Eastern Europe to stem the spread of the coronavirus, as well as the spillover effects from the downturn elsewhere, will... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Output down by a fifth in Q1 The latest data point to a 20% q/q contraction in GDP this quarter (-16% y/y), even on the official figures. Given the shock to incomes and employment, the continued concern about the threat of... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ facing more than 10% quarterly slump in GDP With the euro-zone economy set to contract by 10-15% q/q in Q2 as numerous businesses come to a standstill, governments will have no choice but to provide support to businesses and households on an... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Feb.) The February retail sales data provide further evidence that the economy was in reasonable shape before the coronavirus struck, but that won't prevent spending from falling sharply over the next few... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t needs to step in to confine big hit to GDP to Q2 We now think that the economic effects of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling by around 15% q/q in Q2, that the Bank of England will soon launch £150bn of quantitative easing, and that the... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response ZEW Survey (Mar.) The sharp drops in the ZEW measures of German and euro-zone investor sentiment in March came as no surprise, and point to sharp falls in GDP. Things are likely to get much worse in Q2, when we expect... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai the most vulnerable to coronavirus outbreak Efforts to contain the coronavirus will weigh heavily on non-oil sectors across the MENA region over the coming weeks and months. Dubai is the most vulnerable and this could ultimately ignite fears... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) The latest activity and spending data were much weaker than expected and point to a far deeper downturn than during the Global Financial Crisis. While domestic conditions should improve slowly in the... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Recession in Australia is now very likely New comprehensive restrictions on travel mean that both Australia and New Zealand are headed for recession. We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to follow up today’s emergency 75bp rate cut with... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
