UK Data Response GDP (Q3, First Estimate) While the burst of growth means that the economy avoided a recession in Q3, it’s pretty clear that underlying growth is soft and that the risks to our Q4 GDP forecast of 0.2% q/q are to the downside... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Q3 GDP figures likely to be the last hurrah GDP figures this week are likely to show that Central and Eastern Europe recorded another strong quarter of growth in Q3, despite ongoing weakness in the euro-zone. But more timely data suggest that... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Sep.) The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won’t last. While we expect the preliminary estimate of GDP due on Thursday to show a 1.0% q/q rise... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q3 GDP figures, the fall of the wall The Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Russia’s economy struggled while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) held up well. However, weakness in the euro-zone means we doubt that this... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP: no more cuts in 2019, Malaysia SRR cut Governor Diokno was pretty emphatic earlier this week when he said that the central bank (BSP) had “absolutely” “done more than enough” this year. In response we are taking out the interest rate cut... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government heeds Kuroda’s call for fiscal stimulus The Bank of Japan has urged the government to address the mounting downside risks to economic activity with additional spending and the government has confirmed it will do so. Meanwhile, the available... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Turning away from freer trade India’s decision this week to opt-out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is not entirely unreasonable given the limited scope of the deal. But by excluding itself from the RCEP... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly GDP growth isn’t picking up The decline in capital goods imports over the past year suggests that business investment is set to fall further in the second half of the year . What's more, the fall in real retail sales in Q3 point... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Household Spending & Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) The surge in household spending in September adds to the evidence of a last-minute spending spree ahead of October’s sales tax hike. While that raises the chances of a deep slump in the following... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Labour market begins to loosen The jump in the unemployment rate in September is evidence that the labour market has entered a loosening phase. The Bank of Japan reiterated that the output gap was its key gauge of price pressures... 7th November 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The jump in growth in Q3 was mainly driven by temporary factors relating to the delayed 2019 budget. Once this distortion drops out, we expect growth to settle at around 6.0% as a tough external... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Net trade probably didn’t bolster GDP growth in the third quarter which adds to the evidence that GDP growth slowed in Q3. And weaker capital goods imports suggest that the slump in business... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read