Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Mar.) While the manufacturing PMI didn’t fall as sharply as we had anticipated in March, the plunge in the services sector underlines that the coronavirus outbreak will result in a sharp slowdown in... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Will the market rout trigger a balance of payments crisis? Foreign portfolio flows out of India’s markets have surged over the past month to more than double the peak during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013, which pushed India to the brink of a balance of payments... 23rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens Rapidly rising infection numbers in Europe and North America have prompted many government in those countries to roll out strict nationwide lockdowns. By contrast, there were signs of Japan’s already... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Coronavirus will cut growth across the region It now seems clear that the coronavirus outbreak will cause greater economic damage than we had initially thought – both globally and within Africa. Growth will slow across the region, with South... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tourism slump to hit parts of the region hard Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak look set to hit tourism sectors across the MENA region hard. The North African economies, as well as Dubai, Lebanon and Jordan, are most vulnerable and the... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update How to think about the long-term effects of the virus The immediate effects of the coronavirus on the global economy are becoming increasingly clear and point to a sharp fall in output across the world. Recession looms. The effects over the longer term... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad will it get? South East Asia and China are likely to be the worst affected countries by the current crisis, with some places likely to see GDP contract by up to 5% this year. Only a few economies in the region... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Feb.) Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
