India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation and the IMF, GDP data, Tunisian debt Egyptian inflation data for September, due next week, are likely to be low enough to result in the IMF encouraging the central bank to cut interest rate cuts. Elsewhere, the raft of recently-released... 8th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The small fall in German industrial production in August left it a long way below its pre-crisis level, and lagging the industrial rebounds elsewhere in the euro-zone. We think the sector will resume... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Sep.) The rise in the September PMIs is a welcome sign that the economic recovery still has legs. But with new virus cases in India still high, the road to normality will almost certainly remain long and... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Consumers misery is largely justified Consumers appear to be much more miserable than the economic fundamentals would imply. But the prospect of a second wave of unemployment and the risk of future lockdowns are not captured well by the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose as a further easing of virus containment measures supported another pick-up in economic activity. But against the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea and Taiwan Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) PMI readings for Korea and Taiwan suggest industry in both countries picked up momentum last month, and we expect output to continue growing in the months ahead on the back of strong exports. 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has opened up another schism between Turkey, the EU and Russia and there is a major risk that an escalation of tensions could trigger sharp falls in the lira and push... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production suggests that the sector has now returned to close to its pre-crisis level of output. But the data also provide some early confirmation that the... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Chinese demand for iron ore supporting recovery Australia has been one of the few beneficiaries of the strong rebound in China’s economy which has contributed to the recent strengthening of the Australian dollar. Admittedly, we expect the price of... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
