Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were few positives in September’s batch of Russian activity data as the contraction in retail sales deepened and the recovery in the manufacturing sector stalled. The rise in virus cases and... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Negative interest rates – will they or won’t they? While we wouldn’t rule out negative interest rates being used a bit further down the line, over the next 6-12 months we think 10-year gilt yields will be kept close to 0.15% by the Bank of England... 20th October 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Services still uneven but improving across the board The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data published today shows that the recovery within the service sector remains highly uneven. Encouragingly though, all types of services activity showed a... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Exports continued to rise at a strong pace in September and we think they should return to pre-virus levels before the end of the year. By contrast, the recovery in imports has only just begun so net... 19th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech COVID-19 surge, Turkey’s current account problems The Czech government this week announced a further tightening of containment measures in an effort to control the surge in COVID-19 cases which will cause economic activity to continue to soften. In... 16th October 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export outlook still strong despite virus flare-ups China’s goods exports probably can’t keep growing at their incredibly-rapid recent rates for long, not least because infection flare-ups in Europe and the US will take some steam out of the recoveries... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems mount in Malaysia Malaysia’s economy has rebounded rapidly from the crisis. However, headwinds are growing. Having been on the verge of being eliminated, confirmed inflections have surged in recent days. Meanwhile, the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh fiscal support likely as capital spending weakens The fiscal support provided by Japan’s government had started to look small compared to other large economies but PM Suga this week hinted that more spending is forthcoming. While the government has... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thai protests a key risk to the recovery The renewed risk of domestic political unrest in Thailand following the declaration of a “severe” state of emergency could act as a further drag on the already beleaguered economy. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery lagging behind Hard activity data from South Africa released this week point to continued weakness in the economic recovery in August despite the easing of containment measures. 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The recovery in euro-zone industrial output has slowed but is not going into reverse. The impact of the second COVID-19 wave should be much smaller than the first and will be felt most in the services... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Faltering reform drive clouds Ukraine outlook The coronavirus crisis has already dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian economy and the risks to the outlook are growing: recent challenges to the independence of the central bank and anti-corruption... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight The COVID-19 crisis has led to a ballooning of current account surpluses across Emerging Asia that is putting upward pressure on currencies. The shift to bigger external surpluses could also land the... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Advanced), MAS Decision The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced GDP data showed that the economy rebounded well in Q3. However, with GDP still well below its pre-crisis level, the MAS... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
