Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to rise much further The fact that last night’s US Presidential debate didn’t appear to reduce the chances of a Democratic clean sweep at the upcoming US election, and the optimistic comments on the fiscal negotiations by... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s recovery stalls, region headed for a downturn in Q4 Russia’s economy lost steam at the end of Q3 amid a contraction in consumer spending and the next stage of the recovery will be harder given the hit to incomes, weak investment and tight fiscal policy... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economies in need of continued policy support National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil The Cabinet Office’s monthly measure of consumption released this week showed a substantial upward revision for July and a rebound in August. That indicates that the second wave of infections acted as... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Oct.) The composite PMI only edged up marginally in October, consistent with our view that the recovery will slow in the fourth quarter. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation dropped to zero September, and we think it be negative over the coming months before hovering around zero throughout most of next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The further easing in headline and underlying inflation in Q3 are consistent with our view that weak inflation will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates into negative territory next year. 23rd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Weak recoveries, default risks still high Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been... 22nd October 2020 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery suffers a setback Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more... 22nd October 2020 · 28 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth hits a two-year high Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth continued to accelerate last month, thanks to policy stimulus, strong foreign demand and fewer constraints on services activity. On our estimates... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) September’s batch of Polish activity data confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in Q3, with GDP growth likely to have increased from -8.2% y/y in Q2 to -2.5% y/y. But this strength came before... 21st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update How might the US election impact Asia? With the US election result unlikely to have immediate ramifications for US GDP, the main issue for much of Asia is how it affects trade policy. A Joe Biden presidency would be less confrontational... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reasons for caution despite drop in virus cases New COVID-19 cases in India have dropped significantly over the past month. Encouragingly, the share of tests returning positive has also dropped, indicating that the improvement in test results... 21st October 2020 · 9 mins read
