Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Just one week of New Zealand’s strict lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19, fell in the first quarter. We therefore expect the hit to GDP to be concentrated in Q2 when the bulk of the lockdown... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tracking the recovery The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while all countries in the region are now rebounding, the pace of recovery varies significantly. The recovery is most advanced in China, Taiwan and... 17th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s lockdown conundrum Most policymakers in Latin America are easing lockdowns even though the region is now the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic. This may be less economically damaging than keeping stringent... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (higher) forecast for Swedish GDP There are increasing signs that the Swedish economy has weathered the crisis better than we first feared. Accordingly, we now expect GDP to contract by ‘only’ 2.5% this year (previously -7.5%). 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (May) The 17.7% m/m rebound in retail sales in May indicates that, as the lockdowns were eased in many states, activity started to recover more quickly than we – and others – had been anticipating. As a... 16th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A faster recovery now likely We were already expecting China’s economy to return to its pre-virus path faster than other major economies and sooner than most forecasters anticipate. But with output already back to year-ago levels... 16th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Four charts on the downturn and economic recovery The effects of lockdowns have been felt unevenly across the region, with Romania and Turkey suffering among the largest falls in both retail sales and industrial production, while activity in Latvia... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) State-led infrastructure construction jumped last month and pushed up growth in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Meanwhile, growth in services activity turned positive and suggests... 15th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industry past the worst but recovery will be slow Industrial output ground to a halt in April but high-frequency indicators including electricity consumption and air pollution levels suggest that activity has edged up since then. However, lasting... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Climb back up the cliff will take much longer than the fall off it The 25% drop in GDP compared to its pre-crisis level was exactly in line with our forecast made in April. But even though the worst is now behind the climb back up the economic cliff will take much... 12th June 2020 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How quickly will tourism recover? Tourism across the region has been decimated by the pandemic and is likely to be one of the last sectors of the economy to recover. This will weigh heavily on prospects in countries like Thailand... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Old” beats “new” in near-term infrastructure boost Despite all the recent focus on hi-tech “new infrastructure”, policymakers are still leaning far more heavily on traditional infrastructure construction, which looks set for a boom judging by the... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The plunge in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the economy suffered a almighty hit to GDP in Q2 – we expect the economy to suffer one of the largest contractions... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & International Trade (Apr.) At its peak in April the lockdown reduced economic output by 25%, making the coronavirus crisis by far the deepest recession on record. The peak-to-trough fall in GDP was 7% in both the Global... 12th June 2020 · 3 mins read
