Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q1 2022) The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April data were even weaker than expected and are consistent with a sharp contraction in economic activity. Provided that the virus situation continues to improve, the economy should begin to... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar rally might be due a pause Despite a reversal today, the US dollar looks set to appreciate for the sixth week running as “risky” assets remain under pressure. The DXY index has had its largest six-week gain since mid-2016... 13th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the outlook for the S&P 500 History suggests the S&P 500 might recover quite quickly once it reaches its trough, but that may be a way off yet and still-rosy earnings expectations could be an obstacle. 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation looking better under the hood Fed officials will have been eyeing the flood of red on their screens this week with a growing sense of foreboding. Admittedly, for GDP growth to slow and inflation to fall, they want financial... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hikes, hikes, hikes The hawkish tilt by Mexico ’s central bank at its meeting yesterday, when it raised its raised its policy rate by 50bp (to 7.00%), suggests that Banxico may soon shift its tightening cycle into a... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What Sheikh Khalifa’s passing means for the UAE The passing of the UAE’s President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nayhan today is unlikely to alter the economic outlook with GDP set to grow rapidly amid stronger oil output and looser fiscal policy... 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Testing, testing, testing The outlines of a new, more stringent zero-COVID approach are emerging in China, in the wake of the failure to control infections in Shanghai. If successful, there should be less supply chain... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB more hawkish as investors rein in rate hike bets The ECB’s hawkish conversion appears to be all but complete, with more officials this week joining the ranks of those calling for rates to rise in July and expressing a clear desire to get the deposit... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Will the MPC still raise interest rates if there’s a recession? It looks as though the economy is halfway towards a recession. Although the Monetary Policy Committee has never raised interest rates during a recession before (the last time it happened was in 1975)... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices heading for a fall If we are right that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates to 3.00% to stamp out inflation then we are on the cusp of the fastest increase in mortgage rates since the late 1980s. That... 13th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The decline in industrial output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is having a severe impact on manufacturers. With further Russian energy import bans looming and supply shortages remaining acute... 13th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for the recovery? Politics takes centre stage Despite a surge in virus cases at the start of the year, most countries recorded decent growth in the first quarter. We expect recoveries to continue over the coming months on the back of an easing of... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read