Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Sep. 2022) Current readings picked up in September’s Economy Watchers Survey but fell well short of the peaks seen after previous virus waves ended. However, we suspect that the fading virus wave, the domestic... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Primer on our dedicated Climate Economics research The purpose of this Focus is to introduce our new dedicated Climate Economics research. It is split into three sections. This first looks at how our coverage will be structured and what topics we will... 10th October 2022 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BOJ gets a glimpse of wage-price pressures The strongest increase in regular wages in 25 years is an early sign that the virtuous cycle between prices and wages that the Bank of Japan would like to see is starting to materialise. But with... 7th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by less than most had anticipated this week, but with the economy still running red hot, we doubt that it will take its foot of the brake altogether before... 7th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger-than-expected drop in German industrial production in August was driven mainly by some volatile components and, together with some upward revisions to July’s data, suggests industrial... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 22) The 1.6% annual rise in regular earnings last month was the largest since 1997 and jars with the fact that the labour market still isn’t as tight as it was pre-pandemic. We suspect employees are... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recession will be deeper than most expect A recession has looked unavoidable for some time and we now think it will be deeper than most anticipate. Manufacturing output is already declining and services activity is slowing. What’s more... 6th October 2022 · 11 mins read
CE Spotlight The macroeconomic effects of fracturing Fracturing of global economic and financial ties will lead to shifts in supply chains, and reduced technology and investment flows between US- and China-centred blocs over the coming decade... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) In light of the Fed’s increasingly aggressive monetary tightening, we now think the economy is headed for a mild recession early next year. Our composite tracking models support that forecast, with... 6th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
