Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for bumper GDP growth this year Saudi Arabia’s economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry on over the rest of this year. The combination of rising oil output and the increasing... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q1) The 0.8% q/q contraction in Chile’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy is coming back down to earth after a stellar 2021, and there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile, the current... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Mar.) South Africa’s activity data for March were weak and that was even before flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province dealt a fresh blow to the economy. Inflation figures released earlier today may have... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q1 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy only contracted slightly in Q1 as consumption held up well despite prolonged restrictions during the Omicron wave. But while the economy will bounce back this quarter, we think Japan’s... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Can the economy handle interest rates of 3%? We estimate that a rise in Bank Rate from 0.10% last November to a peak of 3.00% would mean that GDP is around 2.0% lower than if Bank Rate had stayed at 0.10%. That is a smaller drag than the Bank of... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s economy to beat expectations this year The solid 1.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q1 suggests the economy came through the Omicron virus wave in good shape and, given the recent surge in oil prices, we expect above-consensus growth of 6... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew slightly faster in Q1 than previously estimated and there was a solid increase in employment at the start of the year too. While we expect the labour market to remain a... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Consumption to surge even as real incomes fall We now expect Australia’s inflation to rise by more than 6% this year. Even allowing for an acceleration in earnings growth and a further solid rise in employment as immigration resumes, that will... 17th May 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022) Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Following continued growth in the first quarter, the pace of the recovery will largely depend on how quickly tourists return now that the country has fully reopened to foreign visitors. Emerging Asia... 17th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of China’s lockdowns China’s slowdown could keep the renminbi under pressure, and may have gloomy implications for global markets as well. 16th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is a recession necessary to bring down inflation? Provided that supply-related price rises ease, we think that it is possible in theory for central banks to bring inflation down from its current high rates without engineering a recession. However... 16th May 2022 · 4 mins read