India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery slowed in July as the one-off boost from reopening faded. It is consistent with our view that activity will remain below trend in the coming quarters... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) Favourable base effects kept y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries elevated in June. But once those base effects are removed, it’s clear that the industrial sector is entering a weaker... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt yields to rebound, economics point a Lionesses win If our forecasts that Bank Rate will rise to 3.00% and that high inflation will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates during the coming recession both prove right, then 10-year gilt... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in gilt yields won’t last, equities to trough sooner Given our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00%, we still think that gilt yields have further to rise. However, with attention in the markets... 29th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Although activity was stronger than initially estimated in May, the economy still failed to grow and the preliminary estimate suggests that GDP only crept up in June. Together with the weakening of... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target dropped, property rescue plans The Politburo this week quietly abandoned the GDP growth target while promising to support the property sector and ensure that stalled projects are completed. The immediate goal is to boost confidence... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly More left in the locker The drop in FX reserves to the lowest level in almost two years has raised concerns in some quarters that the RBI’s policy of FX intervention to slow the depreciation of the rupee is not sustainable... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q2 and we have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.3% (from 1.8% previously). Even so... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic footballing woes; Record loss for SNB The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly “Build, Build, Build” is back, better news on inflation The president of the Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., earlier this week pledged to resume the “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure programme of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
