Global Trade Monitor World trade to fall outright amid global recession While world trade was resilient in the first half of this year, there is growing evidence that it has since weakened, and we suspect that it will contract outright in 2023 as the world economy falls... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying inflation pressures easing The fall in headline inflation to 7.0% in August, from 7.6%, was largely due to energy price effects, but there were also some encouraging signs that underlying inflationary pressures are easing. The... 28th September 2022 · 9 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Treading water as virus disruptions return Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that virus disruption and cooling exports caused the economy to stagnate in August. September was likely worse and there is little upside in the near-term. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2022) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. And with the savings rate still well above pre-virus levels, retail... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Aug. 22) The eight consecutive rise in retail sales in August will convince the RBA to hike rates by another 50bp at next week’s meeting. The 0.6% m/m increase in retail sales values in August was a little... 28th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Extra policy tightening to tip the world into recession It is now clear that central banks in advanced economies will raise interest rates even further than our above-consensus forecasts had implied, making the current tightening cycle the most aggressive... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m fall in durable goods orders in August wasn’t as bad as we expected and suggests that business equipment investment is, for now at least, still holding up in the face of surging interest... 27th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and declining household real incomes hit... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Index (September) Slump in Ifo signals Germany in recession The further big fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in September adds to the gloom surrounding the German economy as worries about energy prices and... 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2022) September’s flash PMIs indicate yet another slowdown in the manufacturing sector, while services appear to be recovering from the recent record virus wave. 26th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
