Asia Economics Weekly Asian central banks turn hawkish Asian policymakers turned decidedly more hawkish this week, with the central banks of Korea, Singapore and the Philippines, all tightening monetary policy aggressively. Further hikes across the region... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three key calls on the eurozone We published our latest European Economic Outlook this week, which sets out our view that the euro-zone is heading for recession and that core inflation will remain above 2% for several more years... 15th July 2022 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) The statistics bureau claim that output in Q2 was slightly higher than a year ago. That’s implausible even accounting for the strong rebound shown on the monthly data for June. 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Housing market jitters, demographic decline Homebuyers across China are banding together to pause mortgage payments in response to construction delays on presold apartments. For now these boycotts are small in scale. But they could become more... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Sri Lanka We held a Drop-In earlier today to discuss recent developments in Sri Lanka, where the economic and political crisis is going from bad to worse. This Update answers several of the questions that we... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch Cautious lift-off, bigger hikes to come ECB policymakers are likely to follow through on their intention to raise rates by 25bp next week and signal that a bigger rise (probably 50bp) is coming in September. We suspect that the Bank will... 14th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly President Biden heads to Saudi, Dubai PMI US President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow will focus on Iran, the normalisation of ties with Israel and raising oil output more quickly to push global prices down and ease inflation... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in May amid renewed semiconductor shortages, but there is scope for a more sustained rebound over the second half of this year, despite the worsening global... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations? Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (May) The disappointing batch of South African activity data for May suggests that the economy is on course for a mild fall in GDP in the second quarter. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tough times ahead as Pakistan agrees IMF deal The resumption of the loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. But the cuts to government spending that the... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in June will only strengthen the resolve of policymakers to squeeze inflation out of the system and raises the chance that the Bank will make... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Turkey’s activity figures for May show that industrial production and retail sales have now both surpassed their highs from late-2021 despite the weight of sky-high inflation. With strong demand and... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank has breathing room to reconsider tolerance band The Bank of Japan will signal prolonged loose policy by forecasting below-target inflation over the next couple of years in next week’s “Outlook” report. Meanwhile, the fall in global bond yields in... 14th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS tightens even as economy stagnates The city-state’s economy unexpectedly stagnated in the second quarter but this didn’t prevent the MAS from tightening monetary policy today in a bid to tackle high inflation. While we expect output to... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
