Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) The decent increase in unsecured borrowing in March suggests that the plunge in consumer confidence and fall in real incomes have not caused consumer spending to collapse. This lends some support to... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar. 2022) Retail sales defied the weakness in consumer confidence in March and with the household savings rate still high, we expect consumption to keep expanding at a strong pace. 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update PMI readings bode ill for commodities demand The global manufacturing PMI fell back in April. Admittedly, it was a sharp drop in China’s PMI that weighed on the global aggregate, but there are warning signs in the PMIs of most of the major... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe’s supply problems still intense The timeliest surveys show that supply problems faced by euro-zone companies have eased a little this year, but remain intense. This will continue to weigh on production and keep inflation high. UK... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the sector made a stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q1 than in Q4, and there are signs of further improvement in... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Focus How inequality affects the long-run outlook Substantial fiscal support helped to prevent a big rise in income inequality within developed economies during the pandemic. But inequality was rising in many DMs before then and could revert to that... 3rd May 2022 · 18 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded by a robust 2.2% q/q in the first quarter of the year, which translated into year-on-year growth of 9.6% – the fastest pace recorded since 2011. With oil production to... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year, and although there are signs that activity is rebounding, we expect the recovery to prove weak. While virus containment measures are being... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Apr.) Regional Manufacturing PMIs point to a further worsening of industry conditions, chiming with Korean trade data which suggest a major softening of external demand. Both reinforce the view that... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity weakening as price pressures strengthen The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity got off to a weaker start in Q2, as lockdowns in China led to a sharp fall in activity there. Forward-looking components of the surveys – including... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s privatisation push, Africa’s growing food insecurity Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given the party’s track record, we wouldn’t hold our breath... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read