Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Goods trade set to fall as global recession takes hold There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in... 26th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 27th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycles have further to run Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack All eyes on Brazil Brazilians head to the polls on Sunday to decide who’ll become the country’s next president in a heated run-off election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his left-wing rival Lula. Lula is still... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian oil prices underperforming The rebound in global oil prices over the past month has not been matched by those in Canada, with Western Canadian Select (WCS) instead trading closer to $60 per barrel, as the discount between WCS... 25th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget repair will worsen economic slowdown The Treasurer resisted the temptation to spend the tax windfall from high commodity prices in today’s Budget. But with high inflation lifting payments by at least as much as receipts, the government... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Knocked off course yet again Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest downturns set to worsen October’s flash PMIs provided further evidence that several of the major advanced economies are heading into recessions. The surveys suggest that activity was already contracting at the start of Q4... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slowdown to prompt early end to tightening cycle Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
