Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weakness of activity won’t deter the ECB A rate hike by the ECB in July, or possibly even in June, looks increasingly likely. But policymakers seem to be in no hurry to announce a new tool to keep sovereign bond spreads contained. Meanwhile... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tech sector reprieve, cyclical trough? Officials are turning less hostile toward tech firms. But the economic drag from the regulatory crackdown, which we think has knocked 0.3%-pts off of annual GDP growth, is unlikely to dissipate... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election Despite the sharp jump in inflation in the Philippines last month, the central bank looks set to raise interest rates only gradually. Meanwhile, the key event of the coming week is the presidential... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Power shortages, new repo rate forecasts The ongoing heatwave and related power shortages in India pose a downside risk to growth, but we think the biggest risk is the upside one to inflation. Indeed, rising price pressures prompted the RBI... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (March) The slump in output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is hitting manufacturers hard even before a ban on Russian energy imports has taken effect and before the ECB has raised interest rates. We... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 2.5% inflation, border to reopen to tourists in June Despite a huge pot of excess savings accumulated over the past couple of years, today’s 2.5% inflation print for April is likely to slow the post-Omicron recovery by spooking consumers not used to... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions on the global economic outlook We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss our Q2 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update answers several of the excellent questions that we... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ and the Russian oil embargo, GCC follows Fed The EU’s plans to phase out imports of Russian oil would increase the chances that the Gulf economies raise oil output more quickly. This would provide a significant fillip to economic recoveries this... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Apr.) India’s April PMIs show activity picking up, but power shortages may weigh on output soon. The surveys also provide more evidence of price pressures growing. That suggests the RBI will follow up... 5th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM export strength starting to fade Having surged over the past two years, there are signs that EM exports may now have passed their peak. That will weigh on economic growth, particularly in parts of Asia. EM Drop-In (5 th May, 10:00... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The surge in the trade deficit to a record high of $109.8bn in March, from $89.8bn, was driven by a huge rise in imports as port congestion cleared. We suspect imports will fall back over the coming... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The trade surplus unexpectedly fell in March, despite the surge in commodity prices, but it is likely to rise in the second quarter, as export volumes recover while import volumes drop back. Canada... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read