Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jun.) & Final PMIs (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jul.) Swiss inflation appears to have peaked in July at an enviably low level compared to that of most other advanced economies. That said, the core rate reached its highest level in more than two decades... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMIs (Jul.) India’s July PMIs show a reversal of the recent outperformance of services. That said, both the services and composite PMIs remain high by pre-pandemic standards, pointing to growth continuing to hold... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing only gradually The sharper fall in job openings in June signals that labour demand is now beginning to ease more markedly, but with the quits rate little changed and no signs of a pick-up in layoffs, labour market... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 0.4% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in June, taken together with softer surveys last month, provides further evidence that the economy is losing momentum. GDP growth in the second... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What does a weak yen mean for Japan? The yen may have bottomed out against the dollar, but it is likely to remain weak for some time. That should boost Japan’s economy as higher revenues from exports and from overseas subsidiaries... 2nd August 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak industrial activity taking pressure off supply July’s fall in the global manufacturing PMI supported other evidence that the industrial sector is in or close to recession and the forward-looking indicators point to further weakness to come. At... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Composition of spending will change as populations age The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries... 1st August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) Although the ISM manufacturing index fell again in July, to 52.8 from 53.0, the rate of decline does at least appear to be slowing and, for now, it remains consistent with GDP growth of roughly 1.5%... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in July points to a large hit to activity from weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. It will probably take some time before... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP ticked up last quarter as the easing of virus restrictions boosted consumption. But the recovery was muted, held back by a drop in exports. We think growth will remain weak given... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy at the top of the pack The rapid headline 11.8% y/y GDP growth recorded in Saudi Arabia in Q2 masked underlying weakness in non-oil sectors of the economy. Even so, Saudi Arabia is a relative bright spot in the global... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for July fell back amid further signs that global demand is weakening. With global growth set to slow further and domestic interest rates set to continue rising, the region’s... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
