Canada Economics Weekly Housing still struggling Activity in the housing market and broader economy have been struggling for momentum and give little indication that excess supply is dissipating, suggesting that there is still a strong case for a... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to adopt more measured pace of rate cuts September’s blockbuster employment report and the rebound in the October ISM services index mean that any hopes of another 50bp rate cut are long gone. We continue to expect the Fed to take a more... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Budget reaction – Rachel Reeves’ statement and the UK economic and market consequences 1730300400 After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to
Event UK Drop-In: Budget preview – What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ big day 1729087200 This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade.
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services (Sep) The surge in the ISM services index to a 17-month high of 54.9 in September, from 51.5, is a good reminder that the contrasting weakness in manufacturing is not a systemic threat to the modern... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
RBI Watch New-look MPC will wait until December to cut rates Little is known about the monetary policy views of the Reserve Bank of India’s incoming MPC members, but the fact that two of the committee’s doves have been replaced suggests that the repo rate will... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
UK Economics Update Trump tariffs may not be so bad for the UK One way the US election could influence the UK economy would be if Donald Trump won and delivered on his pledge to put a 10% tariff on UK exports being sent to the US. We suspect the impact on UK... 2nd October 2024 · 7 mins read
