Latin America Economics Focus

Why Pemex will ultimately default

The latest Pemex capital injection underscores that Mexico’s President López Obrador is more likely to lean towards providing a sovereign debt guarantee (either implicit or explicit) to deal with the...

1st August 2023 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s debt upgrade, Argentina-IMF, easing cycles

Fitch’s decision to upgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating this week provides another sign that fiscal concerns in the country are easing, but we remain sceptical that the government will be able to...

28th July 2023 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How can Argentina get out of its crisis?

Recently-announced measures by Argentina’s government are merely stopgap solutions and appear to be aimed at staving off a disorderly devaluation ahead of upcoming elections rather than stabilising...

26th July 2023 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

China and Japanification: How great is the risk?

China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with...

24th July 2023 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts

June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the...

21st July 2023 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2023)

This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use...

20th July 2023 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

A primer on Argentina’s primary election

The latest polls ahead of next month’s primaries in Argentina suggest that the country could buck the regional trend by electing a more market-friendly government. In this Update we assess the...

19th July 2023 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account

The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s...

14th July 2023 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

South Africa’s budget position starting to deteriorate

The sharp improvement in South Africa’s budget in recent years has started to reverse. And this trend is set to continue as austerity is eased ahead of the 2024 election and revenues fall short of...

13th July 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Tunisia no closer to solving its sovereign debt problem

Tunisia is struggling to get an IMF deal over the line and, unless President Saied’s government agrees in the near-future to allow the dinar to fall and to implement a large fiscal consolidation, the...

6th July 2023 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

An uneven hit from higher mortgage rates

The shift to fixed mortgage rates and the rise in the number of homes owned outright means that while some borrowers face a sharp rise in mortgage payments other homeowners will sit out this interest...

6th July 2023 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Risk premia fall back

Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late...

28th June 2023 · 11 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold?

This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with...

23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts

The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio...

22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown

Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest...

21st June 2023 · 20 mins read