Europe Economics Focus Riksbank “bailout” not as bad as it looks The Riksbank’s request for a capital injection from the government is not a good look for an independent central bank. But its QE-related losses will be smaller than those of many other central banks... 3rd November 2023 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA, EU-China influence, MTBPS Even as African officials push for an extension of a key US-Africa trade agreement, it was announced this week that Uganda will lose duty-free access to the US from next year in response to the... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate cuts still a long way off, fiscal rules debate This week’s comments by ECB officials, as well as signs that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain strong, support our view that the first ECB rate cut will only come in the second... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update Five takeaways from the Financial Work Conference China’s leadership has outlined its wish list for financial sector development. It wants stricter oversight of financial institutions to ensure they serve the interests of the Party and country. This... 1st November 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been update with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Tight policy and a weak external environment will constrain growth over the coming quarters. 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa food prices, SARB resignation, Zambia bond deal Inflation across Africa has been falling back recently, but persistent food price pressures pose a threat to policymaker’s ambitions to start cutting interest rates. In South Africa, the resignation... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing fiscal risks from higher interest rates in EMs Higher bond yields will add to fiscal pressures in those EMs with particularly large public debt burdens and weak debt dynamics. Brazil, South Africa as well as Colombia and Mexico are the EMs from... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, debt problems, South Africa CPI Sovereign debt restructuring discussions between Zambia and Ghana and their bilateral creditors have been encouraging, but challenging talks with private lenders remain. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where do things stand in Egypt? It has been almost a year since Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF, but progress on key policies that form part of the program has stalled. The pound has been a de-facto peg since... 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Mexico’s construction boom Polls suggest that centre-right candidate Daniel Noboa will win Ecuador's presidential election on Sunday, which would alleviate some of the pressure on the public finances. But we think it’s unlikely... 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher bond yields and the risks for EMs We’ve long argued that EMs were well placed to weather the Fed’s tightening cycle and episodes of rising US Treasury yields – and that has largely been borne out. And, as it happens, the latest sell... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Italy’s public debt? The recent shift towards looser fiscal policy in Italy and increase in sovereign bond yields once again have raised concerns that investors may lose confidence in Italy’s ability to sustain its debt... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read
