Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s fiscal framework, Ecuador’s vote Panama's economy will bear the brunt of the disruption at the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought. But given the Canal's importance to global trade, there are also likely to be global implications... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt risks: Frontiers not out of the woods Market concerns about sovereign debt risks across frontier markets have eased a touch in recent months. For our part, while we think that Egypt and Nigeria should be able to avoid default, Kenya faces... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What happens after EM currency crises? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 There are some unnerving similarities between Argentina’s current situation and that which preceded the 2001/02 crisis, including twin deficits, an overvalued exchange rate, and large external FX... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Why Pemex will ultimately default The latest Pemex capital injection underscores that Mexico’s President López Obrador is more likely to lean towards providing a sovereign debt guarantee (either implicit or explicit) to deal with the... 1st August 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s debt upgrade, Argentina-IMF, easing cycles Fitch’s decision to upgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating this week provides another sign that fiscal concerns in the country are easing, but we remain sceptical that the government will be able to... 28th July 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? Recently-announced measures by Argentina’s government are merely stopgap solutions and appear to be aimed at staving off a disorderly devaluation ahead of upcoming elections rather than stabilising... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s sticking plaster, EU trade deal, rate cuts June trade figures out this week reinforced how perilous Argentina's balance of payments situation is, but officials continue to opt for temporary fixes rather than addressing the root problem - the... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
