Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria strike, Kenya debt, Oxford malaria vaccine This week, Nigeria avoided a potentially disruptive workers’ strike after a late government offer of short-term relief measures, but these risk adding to fiscal and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: rate cuts won’t prevent a sharp slowdown Brazil’s monetary easing cycle will probably lead to higher spending in interest rate sensitive areas such as furniture and appliances, autos and construction materials. But that won’t be enough to... 3rd October 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi pre-budget statement maintains loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-Budget statement reaffirmed the government’s commitment to sustaining its loose fiscal stance, with the government now projecting budget deficits all the way out to 2026. That... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a... 29th September 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election, Dubai debts, CE Spotlight The confirmation that Egypt’s presidential election has been moved forward to December is likely to keep the policy shift toward economic orthodoxy on pause for the time being. Our best guess now is... 28th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Balance sheet problems to weigh on recoveries Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and... 27th September 2023 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Rising corporate bankruptcies another warning sign Rising bankruptcy filings by large corporations are another reason to doubt that the economy will continue to grow at close to its potential rate, as the Federal Reserve now seems to believe. 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government benefitting from higher inflation for now We previously argued that political pressure is one reason to expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. However, we suspect the government's stance on inflation has become more ambiguous. While... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update Fixed-rate debt blunting impact of Fed hikes The prevalence of fixed-rate debt suggests the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will continue to deal less damage to the economy than they might have done in the past. But higher rates are still likely to... 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal rules, Kenya austerity, Ghana CPI This week saw reports that South Africa’s Treasury is proposing to establish a new “fiscal anchor” in a bid to keep investors on side amid a worsening budget position. But a looser fiscal policy seems... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks persist in several major EMs EM governments’ budget deficits have narrowed and their debt-to-GDP ratios have fallen since the height of the pandemic. But some of the tailwinds that have supported an improvement in fiscal health... 13th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria policy mistakes, South Africa austerity Recent interventionist actions from Nigeria’s central bank and government have heightened our fears that growing political pressures are undermining policy reforms. This could see Nigeria’s inflation... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
