Africa Economics Focus What’s behind South Africa’s growth problem? South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major... 6th September 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s grim IMF review, Brazil’s budget deficit The acknowledgement by the IMF that Argentina's programme has gone 'off track' confirms that the Fund's patience is (belatedly) wearing thin. The next president will have to quickly make market... 1st September 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Gabon’s coup, South Africa Q2 GDP The military coup in Gabon this week, coming so shortly after a coup in Niger, has raised further concerns about political instability and institutional frailty in the region. But we’d be wary of... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth (outside the pandemic) since 2016 this year... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dollarisation not a silver bullet for Argentina History suggests that dollarisation, which is at the heart of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei’s policy platform, is a surefire way to get inflation under control. But whether this... 30th August 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco’s public finances stronger than they seem On the face of it, Morrocco’s public finances are starting to look alarming. The budget deficit has widened and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has jumped by over 10%-pts in less than three years. But a... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa fiscal issues, Ethiopia finance, Kenya debt Growing concerns about the direction of South Africa’s public finances have caused the yield curve to steepen as risk premia have risen, a trend that may continue as next year’s election approaches... 25th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Panama Canal, Brazil’s fiscal framework, Ecuador’s vote Panama's economy will bear the brunt of the disruption at the Panama Canal caused by a severe drought. But given the Canal's importance to global trade, there are also likely to be global implications... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt risks: Frontiers not out of the woods Market concerns about sovereign debt risks across frontier markets have eased a touch in recent months. For our part, while we think that Egypt and Nigeria should be able to avoid default, Kenya faces... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2023) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with... 18th August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current EM turmoil not a sign of widespread risks The crises unfolding in Argentina, Russia, as well as in China’s property sector, this week may rumble on for some time. And in the case of China’s property downturn, there are likely to be spillovers... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What happens after EM currency crises? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
