Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from Egypt FM briefing; our latest forecasts The key takeaways from a recent briefing with Egypt’s Finance Minister Mohammed Maait are that the government is committed to keeping fiscal policy tight and bringing the government debt-to-GDP ratio... 22nd June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi may struggle to sustain loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position has deteriorated over the past few quarters on the back of lower oil prices and production, and officials are increasingly doing all they can to sustain the current... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Rate cuts coming, but easing will be gradual The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but... 8th June 2023 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: just how likely is a sovereign debt default? The re-election of President Erdogan has raised concerns about a possible sovereign default. We think this risk looks low for now, but it would become a bigger threat in the coming years if the... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s ‘mutual death’, external imbalances easing Ecuador’s political crisis escalated this week after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to dodge an imminent impeachment vote. Whoever wins the fresh elections, the next couple... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and AGOA, Nigeria inflation, Ghana-IMF Allegations that South Africa has supplied arms to Russia has led to calls for the country to lose preferential trade access to the US via the African Growth and Opportunities Act which, while not a... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt playing with fire The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting and the lack of comment on the pound will only add to investor concerns about the commitment... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the CBE, Saudi budget figures The unveiling of Egypt’s austere FY2023/24 Budget and the reinvigorated privatisation drive will help to ease some concern among investors of reform progress. But the critical thing to watch will be... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: political turmoil brings default risks back The looming impeachment trial of Ecuador’s president Guillermo Lasso marks a further intensification of the country’s political crisis and suggests that the recent experiment with market-friendly... 10th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read