UK Housing Market Update Arrears to rise, but banks will survive The scale of the increase in mortgage rates means that a large rise in mortgage arrears and repossessions is probably unavoidable. But substantial capital buffers mean lenders will be able to absorb... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Tango with the IMF, tightening cycles This week’s news that Argentina will receive the next tranche of its IMF deal has caused near-term debt risks to ease. But the Fund has still not addressed the overvalued exchange rate, which could... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil’s spending cap survive? The credibility of Brazil’s spending cap – the country’s key fiscal anchor – has been seriously undermined by tweaks and workarounds since the start of the pandemic. And it looks likely that the cap... 21st September 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: weak growth & lower oil prices pose fiscal risk Mexico’s 2023 budget proposal suggests that officials intend to stick to their tight policy stance, but the public finances are likely to deteriorate if (as we expect) oil prices fall back and the... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MPC meetings galore, Tunisia shortages and debt default Central banks in the Gulf are set to hike interest rates next week in line with the Fed, and we think that the Central Bank of Egypt will join the party and resume its tightening cycle next Thursday... 15th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Glimmers of hope for swifter debt restructurings? Shifts in China’s approach in debt talks with Zambia and planned changes to the Common Framework, such as establishing firm timelines, will go some way to smoothing the debt restructuring process for... 14th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s return to debt sustainability still elusive One year into Hakainde Hichilema’s presidency, Zambia has taken key steps on the path out of a sovereign default, including securing an IMF deal this month. But with debt restructuring talks yet to... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt, SA data and stimulus, election challenges Analysis from the IMF this week suggests that, even with debt relief in the pipeline, putting Zambia’s public debt on a sustainable footing will be a tall order. Meanwhile, data this week have raised... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s IMF deal sealed, reading tea leaves from SA data This week’s rubber-stamping of Zambia’s IMF deal is certainly a welcome step but, with crucial sovereign debt restructuring details unknown, it remains unclear if it will prove to be sufficient to... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola’s elections, SA price pressures, Ethiopia’s debt President João Lourenço is on course to secure another term following this week’s elections in Angola. With the political backdrop little changed, we think that the economy will revert to its low... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Student loan changes arguably a fiscal tightening President Biden has finally unveiled a plan to forgive some student debt via executive order. But the accompanying announcement that the pandemic-era moratorium on student debt will definitely expire... 25th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s current account, the peso and FX debts The further widening of Chile’s current account deficit in Q2 combined with an increased reliance on portfolio inflows leave the Chilean peso vulnerable to a deterioration in investor risk appetite... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections, Bank of Ghana in panic mode Deputy President William Ruto was this week declared winner in Kenya’s presidential election, but the result is being challenged and the threat of violence lingers. Even if that is avoided, Mr. Ruto... 19th August 2022 · 9 mins read
