Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt playing with fire The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to leave interest rates unchanged at Thursday evening’s MPC meeting and the lack of comment on the pound will only add to investor concerns about the commitment... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Debt risks: the not so bad, the bad and the ugly Sovereign debt risks are back in focus as some frontiers appear to be drifting closer to default. We remain most concerned about default risks in Tunisia and Pakistan, particularly in light of this... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the CBE, Saudi budget figures The unveiling of Egypt’s austere FY2023/24 Budget and the reinvigorated privatisation drive will help to ease some concern among investors of reform progress. But the critical thing to watch will be... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: political turmoil brings default risks back The looming impeachment trial of Ecuador’s president Guillermo Lasso marks a further intensification of the country’s political crisis and suggests that the recent experiment with market-friendly... 10th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt distress across SSA: more than meets the eye Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened across Sub-Saharan Africa this week and are signalling further debt distress, particularly in Kenya, Nigeria and Angola. But we think that sovereign debt... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt default fears on the rise The IMF and foreign investors are growing increasingly concerned about the lack of reform progress from Egypt’s government. The pound appears to still be heavily managed and the government’s... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
