Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: political turmoil brings default risks back The looming impeachment trial of Ecuador’s president Guillermo Lasso marks a further intensification of the country’s political crisis and suggests that the recent experiment with market-friendly... 10th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Hikes nearly over, but most of their effect still to come While the hiking cycles of all major central banks will soon be in the rear-view mirror, most of their impact on activity lies on the road ahead. Based on the latest national accounts data, we... 9th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian debt sustainability revisited Our central scenario is that Italy’s public debt-to-GDP ratio will decline gradually in the long-run. However, the government will need to maintain sizeable primary budget surpluses to make that... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt distress across SSA: more than meets the eye Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened across Sub-Saharan Africa this week and are signalling further debt distress, particularly in Kenya, Nigeria and Angola. But we think that sovereign debt... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: the next default domino to fall? Concerns about Kenya’s public finances have intensified with the government recently delaying the payment of public employees’ salaries. Policymakers appear willing to honour public debt obligations... 3rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt default fears on the rise The IMF and foreign investors are growing increasingly concerned about the lack of reform progress from Egypt’s government. The pound appears to still be heavily managed and the government’s... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Chile’s private sector cope with higher interest rates? There’s little evidence (so far) that the surge in interest rate is leading to widespread debt servicing problems in Chile’s private sector, but there are pockets of vulnerability in the household... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina-IMF trouble ahead, Andean central banks A read between the lines of the IMF’s Fourth Review of Argentina’s $44bn Extended Fund Facility suggests that the deal could be starting to fray at the seams. Meanwhile, the latest messaging from... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
